幕小后

[2008.05.31] Drying up 北海油气日渐枯竭归类于： 欧洲 — Eco Team @ 12:12 pm
Oil and gas
油气
Drying up
日渐枯竭
May 29th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日
摘自《经济学人》印刷版
Production in the North Sea is falling faster than predicted
北海油气产量的下滑速度之快远远高于预计

GORDON BROWN must have found Aberdeen a welcome refuge from London, where mutinous lorry-drivers clogged a main road in protest against the cost of diesel. The Scottish city is the centre of Britain’s oil and gas industry, and the only place in the country where the eye-wateringly high price of oil is cause for celebration.
格登•布朗肯定知晓阿伯丁是一个远离伦敦并深受欢迎的避难所。在伦敦，暴动的的卡车司机正堵塞在一条公路干线之上对柴油价格过高表示抗议。阿伯丁是英国油气工业的中心，还是英国唯一一个因油价过高而值得庆祝的地方。
Mr Brown was in the Granite City on May 28th to discuss how to maximise production from Britain’s oil and gas fields. Exhorting firms to pump harder, while a useful political gesture, is unlikely to make much difference to global prices. But that does not mean that revving up output is a bad idea.
5月28日，布朗在花岗岩城（Granite City）商讨如何把英国油气田产量增至最大值。布朗敦促企业大力提高油气产量的举动，只不过是一种有效的政治姿态，但不可能对全球油价产生深远影响。不过，此举并不意味着增加产量是一个坏主意。
Britain’s glory days as a fossil-fuel producer are over (in 1999 it was the world’s sixth-biggest source of oil and gas; today it is 12th), but the business still employs around 30,000 people directly. Petropounds have made Aberdeen one of the most prosperous towns in the country, and expensive oil means more tax revenues. Oil and gas last year overtook banking as the biggest payer of corporate tax, contributing £7.8 billion ($15.6 billion) to the exchequer. Officials predict tax revenues of £9.9 billion this year, although firms say it could be nearer £12 billion if prices stay high.
英国作为矿物燃料生产国的辉煌时代一去不复返 (在1999年，英国是世界第六大油气生产国;目前位列第12位)，但是油气工业仍在直接地雇佣着3万多员工。石油暴利使阿伯丁成为英国最为繁荣的城市之 一，并且昂贵的石油则意味国家将获取更多的税收。去年，英国油气产业向财政部交纳的公司税高达78亿英镑(156亿美元)，已超过银行部门成为最大的纳税 单位。官员预测油气产业在今年交纳的税额将会达到99亿英镑。不过，企业表示如果油价居高不下，交纳的税额可能接近120亿英镑。
Mr Brown has his work cut out to raise output. Since its peak in 1999 production has fallen by 40%. The North Sea has been pumped and drilled for 40 years and the big finds are gone. The discovery in 2001 of the Buzzard field, with over 500m barrels of recoverable oil, was a rare exception in a basin where the average new field holds just 20m barrels. Many new finds are technically tricky, which pushes up the cost of exploiting them. And although high oil prices make it attractive to try, they have led to higher operating costs as well.
在 提高油气产量上，布朗仍需要做不少艰难的工作。自1999年达到顶峰以来，英国油气产量已下滑了40%。北海油田被钻探和开采了40年，规模较大的油田已 不复存在。在北海，新勘探油田的可采石油平均储量为2000万桶，于2001年发现的储量在5亿桶的Buzzard油田却是一个罕见的特例。许多新油田在 技术上出现了难题，这已增加了开发油田的费用。虽然高油价吸引着企业到北海进行尝试，但是高油价已引发了更高的运营成本。
With the low-hanging fruit plucked, the hope is that smaller companies will come in to pursue modest new discoveries or wring the last drops from existing fields. There are encouraging signs. Apache, a mid-sized American firm, has increased production from the elderly Forties field, the North Sea’s biggest, which it acquired from BP in 2003. Reforms to the licensing system have helped, with the latest round attracting a record 193 applications. And there is still unexplored territory. The seabed west of the Shetlands may contain another 3 billion-4 billion barrels of oil and gas.
众所周知，低垂的果子易采摘。令人寄予厚望是，较小型企业将迅速跟进，进行勘探产量中等的新油田 或从现存油田中挤出最后一滴石油。目前，在此方面已有鼓舞人心的迹象。自2003年从英国石油公司BP收购Forties油田（北海最大的油田）后，美国 中型企业Apache已在这一开采多年的油田中提高了油气产量。对许可制度的改革也提供了许多帮助。在开发北海油田上，最新一轮的改革举措已前所未有地吸 引了193家申请单位。此外，北海还有尚勘测的领域。比如，在舍德兰群岛西边的海床可能就会存在30——40亿桶油气。
In spite of all this, production has fallen sharply. Oil & Gas UK, the industry’s trade body, had hoped that output would be around 3m barrels a day in 2010, a target that now looks impossible. Worries over decommissioning costs are starting to affect asset trading, says Alex Kemp of Aberdeen University. There are no pipelines west of the Shetlands, and without the prospect of giant new fields to lure them, companies are reluctant to build any.
尽管如此，英国油气产量还是在急剧下降。油气产业的贸易机构Oil & Gas UK希望，石油日产量在2010年能够达到约300万桶，但现在看起来是一个难以实现的目标。阿伯丁大学的Alex Kemp表示，对石油禁运成本的忧虑也开始影响着石油交易。舍德兰群岛（ Shetlands）西部并无石油管道。在未发现新型大油田的前景下，得不到利益诱惑的众多企业也不愿意修建任何管道。
But Mr Brown has other tools at his disposal. In his previous incarnation as chancellor, he pushed the tax rate for oil and gas firms to 50%, far higher than the 28% other companies pay. If he is serious about maximising production, reversing that would be a good start.
不过，布朗对个人决议却自有他法。在担当财政大臣期间，布朗曾把油气公司交纳的税率提高到50%，远远高于其他公司交纳28%的标准。如果布朗慎重对待油气产量增至最大值的决议，对以往油气税率进行前后颠倒的做法或许将是一个不错的开始。

幕小后

[2008.05.31] Divided rule 科索沃前景归类于： 欧洲 — Eco Team @ 12:20 pm
Kosovo’s future
科索沃前景
Divided rule
多方角力
May 29th 2008 | PRISTINA
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日/普里什蒂那
《经济学人》印刷版
The European Union runs into roadblocks in its plans for Kosovo
欧盟解决科索沃问题的方案陷入泥潭



WHEN the Austro-Hungarian empire declared war on Serbia in July 1914, few could have imagined that the result would be the demise not only of the Habsburg empire, but also of the Russian and Ottoman ones. Nobody believes that Serbia’s challenge to the European Union over Kosovo will be anything like as dramatic; most Serbs want to join the EU, not destroy it. Yet 100 days after Kosovo declared independence, Serbia has done a lot better than anybody expected in thwarting the EU’s plans for it.
1914年7月，奥匈帝国向塞尔维亚宣战。当时没有人能料想到这不但宣告了哈布斯堡王朝的终结，也导致了沙俄帝国和奥斯曼土耳其帝国的覆 灭。同样，没人能料想到塞尔维亚人在科索沃问题上会给欧盟造成如此麻烦；多数塞尔维亚人希望加入欧盟，而非抵制它。科索沃独立已百天，塞尔维亚却使得欧盟 的解决方案面临严峻考验，这出乎各方意料。
Serbia still regards Kosovo as a province, but the ethnic Albanians, who constitute over 90% of its 2m people, declared its independence in February. So far 41 countries have recognised Kosovo, including America and 20 of the EU’s 27 members. But five of these are microstates like Nauru and the Marshall Islands. And such big hitters as Brazil, China, India and Russia have not recognised the new country. Nor have Spain, Egypt or even most Muslim countries.
今 年二月，占科境内人口90%的阿尔巴尼亚族宣布了科索沃的独立，然而塞尔维亚仍视其为它的一个省。目前，已有41个国家承认科主权，其中包括美国及欧盟 27个成员国中的20个。但这41个中有5个都是瑙鲁、马绍尔群岛这样的小国。一些主要大国，如巴西、中国、印度、俄罗斯尚未承认科独立。西班牙。埃及甚 至大多数穆斯林国家也都未承认。
Since the end of the war in 1999, Kosovo has come under the jurisdiction of the United Nations. Legally the last word in its government accordingly lies with the head of the UN mission in Pristina. When Kosovo declared its independence, the EU authorised the establishment of a big new police and justice mission named EULEX. With the Americans and others, it also set up the office of the international civilian representative (ICR), investing him with sweeping powers.
1999年科索沃战争之后，科即处于联合国托管之下。在法理上，联合国驻普里什蒂那使团在科境内拥有最高决策 权。科索沃独立之后，欧盟授权成立了一个名为EULEX的庞大的警察及司法机构。同时，欧盟纠集美国等国成立了国际民事代表处（ICR），由欧盟驻科索沃 特别代表，荷兰籍的Pieter Feith任主席。上述两个举动赋予欧盟在科境内的实际控制权。
On June 15th Kosovo’s new constitution is due to come into force. It foresees no role at all for the UN. But legal and technical problems mean that the EULEX mission has been postponed. As for the ICR, whose (Dutch) head, Pieter Feith, is also the EU’s special representative in Kosovo, one UN official scoffs, “He and his team are here as tourists. What are they doing? They can’t take over the role they were assigned, as we are still here.”
6月15日，科新宪法即将生效。根据该宪法，联合国今后在科境内将失去权力。但法理及技术上的原因导致EULEX的成立 推迟。至于国际民事代表处，一位联合国官员对之颇为不屑：“Pieter Feith和他的代表处完全就像旅游者。只要有联合国的存在，他们就无法获得实际权力。”
Since independence the Belgrade government has consolidated its grip on Serbian areas of Kosovo, including almost all of the region north of Mitrovica. It even held local elections, condemned as illegal by the UN, the EU and the ICR. EULEX and the ICR will be unable to operate in these areas. De facto, Kosovo is thus divided not only into Serb and ethnic-Albanian areas, but also into places where the UN will keep operating and the ethnic-Albanian areas where EULEX and the ICR will probably take over. For the EU, says one diplomat, “It is a face-saving operation now. Their plan has been derailed.”
科独立之后，塞尔维亚政府也加强了对科境内塞族聚居区的控制，其中包括米特洛维查 以北的大部地区。塞族控制区内甚至举行了选举，不过联合国、欧盟及国际民事代表处宣布该选举无效。EULEX 与 ICR在塞族控制区内无法实际运作。因此实际上，科索沃不但被分成了塞族控制区及阿族控制区，今后可能也将分成联合国托管区和EULEX 与 ICR管理区。至于欧盟，有外交界人士表示：“EULEX 和 ICR的成立实际上只是挽回颜面的举动。欧盟的计划已经落空。”
As the June 15th deadline nears, meeting after meeting is taking place to try to resolve the impasse. The UN’s future role is now utterly unclear because, as the joke has it, everyone is “waiting for Ban”. Under pressure from all sides, the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, has done little beyond prohibiting the transfer of cars, buildings and equipment to EULEX and the ICR. The Russians recently warned him that any notion that he might try to resolve the problem without the approval of the UN Security Council (and thus of Russia) was “out of the question”.
6月15日的期限日近。为了解决目前的僵局，各种会议不断召开。联合国未来在科索沃的地位完全未定。原因？正如坊间 的笑话所说的，大家都在等着“潘”头（盼头）。面临各方压力，联合国秘书长潘基文所做的只有拒绝向EULEX和ICR移交车辆、建筑和设备。俄罗斯最近警 告说，潘基文任何解决方案都必须获得安理会首肯（意味着也必须获得俄罗斯同意），否则都是“不可接受的”。
Attempts are now being made to square the circle by seeing if EULEX could somehow come under the UN’s legal authority, but so far no progress towards a deal has been made. What is becoming distressingly obvious to Kosovo’s Albanians is that, despite declaring independence, their future is still tied to Serbia’s. Keen to gain more recognition, they are making little fuss. But Mr Feith says “they need to be given some comfort that their interests are being taken care of.” If they don’t get it, he sees trouble ahead.
另一个可能方案是将EULEX部分置于联合国框架之内，各方正朝此努力，但目前尚无成功的迹象。对于科索沃阿族人来 说，他们悲哀的前景也日益明晰：虽然新国家已宣告独立，但它的未来却仍和塞尔维亚的前景绑在一起。为了尽早获得更多国际支持，科索沃阿族人仍在约束自己的 不满。但正如Feith所说：“外界应安抚科索沃阿族人，以使他们确认自身利益未被外界忽视”。如果没有这种安抚，Feith认为，科索沃问题的解决将面 临更大麻烦。

幕小后

Enlarging the European Union
欧盟东扩
Chicken or Kiev?
“鸡脯”还是基辅
May 29th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日
《经济学人》印刷版
The European Union must not abandon its most successful policy when it comes to Ukraine
对待乌克兰，欧盟不能摒弃其最成功的策略



IT IS, quite simply, the European Union’s greatest achievement. The offer of EU membership to its neighbours in the east and south has proved a masterly way of stabilising troubled countries and inducing them to make democratic and liberal reforms. The contrast with the United States, which despite spending billions of dollars has failed to find an equivalent policy for the countries of the Caribbean rim, is striking.
简而言之，这项政策是欧盟最大的成就。欧盟邀请其东南部邻国加入其中被证明是明智之举，该政策稳定了那些多难之邦，并引导它们进行了民主和自由的变革。而与此形成鲜明对照的是，美国尽管已斥资数十亿美元，力图寻求类似的策略来针对环加勒比海国家，却收效甚微。
Enlargement is, however, unpopular in many older EU members. It is accused by some of making the club unwieldy. Others blame it for an unwelcome inflow of cheap labour and an outflow of jobs. Still others complain that too many countries have been let in before they were ready. Indeed, the recent wave of EU enlargement has precious few defenders in Western Europe. Even fewer stand up for the principle of letting in anyone else: France is poised to confirm that any big country’s membership must be put to a national referendum.
然而，欧盟的东扩对于许多老牌欧盟国家而言，却不得人心。一些人指 责它使得欧盟这个团体臃肿不堪，难以运作。另外一些人则将不受欢迎的廉价劳动力的涌入和工作岗位的流失也归咎到它身上。更有甚者抱怨许多国家尚未准备便被 吸纳进来。诚然，在西欧，支持最近一轮欧盟东扩者寥寥无几。而为吸纳新会员这一政策挺身而出者就更是少之又少了。法国准备发表声明，任何实力雄厚的新成员 国的加入必须诉诸国民公决。
Yet scare stories about enlargement have led to false alarms. Several studies confirm that the club functions as well with 25 (now 27) members as it did with 15. Cheap labour helps hosts as well as new members. Fears of job losses and rising competition have more to do with China than eastern Europe. The economies of several old EU members, notably Germany and Austria, have gained massively from enlargement—making their hostility especially perverse. As our special report this week argues, far from joining too soon, most of eastern Europe arrived in the nick of time.
媒体关于东扩的恐慌报道引发人们虚惊一场。数项研究证实，拥有25个 （目前27个）成员国的欧盟运作起来和当初拥有15个成员国时一样灵活。廉价的劳动力即帮助了东道主，又惠及了新成员。失业的恐惧和日益激烈的竞争似乎更 多来自中国，而非东欧。一些老牌欧盟成员国的经济，尤其是德国和奥地利，在此次东扩中获利颇丰-使得他们对待新成员国的所表现出来的敌意更加不通情理。正 如本周的特别报道指出，许多东欧国家的加入恰逢其时，远非仓促草率。
This is not to say that enlargement has been trouble-free. Some countries may have come in unprepared, notably Bulgaria and Romania. The EU mistakenly gu***nteed these two, plus Cyprus, a membership date in advance, instantly losing leverage for more reforms (or, in Cyprus’s case, for a deal with the north of the island). The eurocrats have learnt that, once a country is in, they have less influence on it. But less is not none. Bulgaria and Romania now face sanctions for failing to fight hard enough against corruption and organised crime.
这并不是说此次扩张百利而无一害。有些国家可能未加准备就加入进来，比如保加利 亚和罗马尼亚。欧盟错误地提前做出承诺，在一定期限内给予了加上塞浦路斯在内的这三个国家成员国资格。此举立即导致更多的改革(或者，就塞浦路斯而言，同 分岛而治的“北塞浦路斯”达成协议)难以为继。欧洲的巨头们吸取了教训，认识到一旦一个国家加入进来，他们的影响将大打折扣。但是影响变弱并不等于毫无影 响。保加利亚和罗马尼亚因未能采取足够严厉的措施来打击腐败和组织犯罪正面临着制裁。
Catching a Ukrainian wave
搭上乌克兰这班车
In any case, teething troubles with a few new members should not become an excuse for slamming the door on others. It is right for the EU to be tough in negotiating entry terms, as it is being with Croatia and Turkey, the two countries now engaged in membership talks, even if that causes delay. But to suggest that these places, or others such as the western Balkan countries, should be kept out indefinitely, regardless of their progress with reform, risks provoking instability or even downright hostility from places smack on the EU’s borders.
无论如何，吸纳几个新 的成员国所产生的问题不应当成为将其他国家拒之门外的理由。对欧盟来说，在谈判加入事项时应当严格把关实乃正确之举，正如对待克罗地亚和土耳其。虽然严格 把关可能延迟这些国家的加入，但是目前克罗地亚和土耳其已经就加入欧盟问题进行了磋商。但是如果提出永远将这些地区，或者其它地区诸如西巴尔干地区的国家 拒之门外，而不顾其改革所取之成果， 那么将会引发不稳定因素甚至在一些同欧盟接壤的边境地区滋生敌意和事端。
In reality, the case for eventual EU membership of the western Balkan countries is widely understood. Turkey is more controversial, as a big and mainly Muslim country—but it is sui generis. In many ways the bigger test of the EU’s commitment to enlargement lies to its east, in countries like Moldova and, above all, Ukraine. Ukraine matters: it is the largest European country after Russia, with around 46m people, a lot of fertile farmland and significant industrial capacity, including in large aircraft and steelmaking.
事实上，欧盟就最终接纳西巴尔干国家为成员国达成了广泛的共识。土耳其因为是一个穆斯林大 国，则略受争议，但它的地位是独一无二的。在许多方面欧盟东扩的努力面临的更大挑战来自东部国家，譬如摩尔多瓦，以及最重要的，乌克兰。乌克兰极其重要： 它在欧洲是仅次于俄罗斯的第二大国，人口4600万，有着广袤的良田沃野，其工业生产能力不可小觑，包括大型飞机的制造和炼钢业。
The recent story of Ukraine seems, at first blush, depressing. The country’s political leaders have been squabbling among themselves almost since the heady “orange revolution” in the Kiev snow during the winter of 2004-05 (see article). Inflation is worryingly high and corruption is rife. Yet some encouragement can be found behind the headlines. The country’s political chaos and its vigorous media are testimony to a healthy democratic debate. Although Ukraine has no oil or gas, its economy has been growing strongly. It has just joined the World Trade Organisation, ahead of Russia.
初步看来，乌克兰近况堪忧。自04-05年冬天 “橙色革命”席卷基辅以来，该国的政治领导人内部一直争论不休。通货膨胀居高不下，令人担忧，同时腐败盛行。然而，在这些见诸报纸头条的事件背后，我们仍 然能够找到一些慰藉。乌克兰混乱的政治格局和活跃的媒体证明在该国，关于民主的辩论仍然富于活力。尽管乌克兰无油无汽，它的经济发展迅猛，并刚刚加入了 WTO，早俄国一步。
Nobody could pretend that Ukraine is ready for membership of the EU. That could take a decade or more. But it would be wrong permanently to bar it as a candidate. It is as much a part of Europe as Bulgaria, and arguably more so than Turkey. Although many Ukrainians have doubts about joining NATO, almost all—even in the Russian-speaking east of the country—want to get into the EU. If Ukraine were kept out, it could easily fall back under the sway of a newly resurgent Russia; and the knock-on effects for other vulnerable places, such as Georgia and Moldova, could be serious. If, on the contrary, it were welcomed as a candidate, that would hugely encourage liberals who hope to bring proper democracy to Russia as well. It is high time that western Europe’s political leaders began explaining to their voters just why both past and future enlargement of the EU is so much in their own interests.
没有人能掩饰说乌克兰已经蓄势待发，加入欧盟。这一过程需要十年或更久，但是把乌克兰 永远拒之门外将是错误之举。乌克兰是欧洲的重要组成部分，正如保加利亚，或者略带争议地说，乌克兰比土耳其更重要。尽管许多乌克兰人对本国加入北约持怀疑 态度，但几乎所有人，甚至在该国东部以俄语为主的地区，都希望加入欧盟。如果乌克兰吃了闭门羹，它将很容易退回到从前，受制于新崛起的俄罗斯。由此在更多 岌岌可危的地区引发连锁反应，譬如格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦，后果将十分严重。如果，反过来，乌克兰被接纳为候选成员国，这也将极大地鼓舞那些希望在俄国推进适 合俄罗斯民主的自由主义者。目前，形势刻不容缓。西欧的领导人应当开始向其选民解释为什么欧盟的扩张，在过去，在将来，都将和他们自身利益攸关。

幕小后

Economics focus
经济聚焦
The Doha dilemma
多哈困局

May 29th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日
《经济学人》印刷版

Does freer farm trade help poor people?
更自由的农业贸易能够帮助穷人吗？



THE global food crisis has shone a harsh spotlight on the consequences of government meddling in agriculture. Poor people go hungry, in part, because Americans pay their farmers to divert crops from food to fuel. But in at least two areas, the crisis has emboldened those who are sceptical of free ***** in food.
全球粮食危机已经使人们开始审视政府干预农业的严重后果。穷人挨饿部分是因为美国公司从农民手中收购粮食，然后把农作物转化成燃料。但在至少两方面，这场危机使得一些人更加怀疑粮食自由市场。

The first is “food security”. Politicians in rich and poor countries have seized on recent price spikes as proof that free farm trade is a risky business and self-sufficiency a worthy goal. The second area concerns the poor. For years reformers have advocated freer trade on the grounds that market distortions, particularly the rich world’s subsidies, depress prices and hurt rural areas in poor countries, where three-quarters of the world’s indigent live. The Doha round of trade talks is dubbed the “development round” in large part because of its focus on farms. But now high food prices are being blamed for hurting the poor (the topic of a big United Nations summit in Rome starting on June 3rd).
第一方面是“粮食安全”。不管是富裕国家还是贫穷国家的政客们都抓住近来粮食价格高涨不放，以此来证明自由农业贸易有风险， 粮食实现自给自足很有必要。第二方面则关系到穷人。一直以来，鼓吹贸易自由的改革者都基于这样的理论：市场扭曲，尤其是发达国家的补贴，压低了价格并且伤 害了贫穷国家的农村地区，而这些地区居住着全球四分之三的最穷的人。多哈贸易谈判之所以被称为“发展回合”很大程度是因为它关注农业，但现在人们又指责高 粮价伤害穷人（一个大型的联合国主题峰会将于6月3日在罗马举行）。

The argument for self-sufficiency is easiest to counter. Anyone who believes autarky is the route to food security should look at starving North Korea. In world ***** trade barriers, not the lack of them, have exacerbated the mess. The commodities that have seen the biggest price spikes are those which tend to be traded least. Only 6% of global rice production, for instance, flows across borders. Unilateral export restrictions, such as those imposed by Vietnam and India, have made matters worse. Global supply is disrupted and domestic farmers discouraged from producing more. The route to deeper, less volatile ***** lies through freer trade and fewer distortions. The notion that free trade precludes food security is plainly wrong-headed.
自给自足的观点很容易反驳。任何一个认为经济独立是通向粮食安全 之路的人都应该看看饥饿的朝鲜。在全球市场上，是贸易壁垒而不是没有贸易壁垒加剧了粮食危机。价格上涨最大的商品往往是被交易最少的商品，例如，全球大米 产品中只有6%进行跨国贸易。单方面出口管制让情况更趋恶劣。印度和越南就有这样的举措，使得全球供给被扰乱，国内的农民也没有动力生产更多的粮食。只有 不断加大贸易自由度和减少市场扭曲才能使得市场日趋紧密和稳定。自由贸易危害粮食安全的观点完全是错误的。

The links between trade, food prices and poverty reduction are more subtle. Different types of reform have diverse effects on prices. When countries cut their tariffs on farm goods, their consumers pay lower prices. In contrast, when farm subsidies are slashed, world food prices rise. The lavishness of farm subsidies means that the net effect of fully freeing trade would be to raise prices, by an average of 5.5% for primary farm products and 1.3% for processed goods, according to the World Bank.
但贸易，粮价和减少贫困之间的关系就不那么明显了。不同的政策对价格有不同的影响。削减农产品关税，消费者花费减少；削减 农业补贴，全球粮食价格上升。因为农业补贴太多，所以完全自由贸易的净效应将会是粮食价格上升。据世界银行估计，基础农产品平均上升5.5%，加工后农产 品上升1.3%。

These effects are still much smaller than recent food-price spikes, but would they, on balance, help or hurt the poor? In crude terms, food-exporting countries gain in the short term whereas net importers lose. Farmers are better off; those who buy their food fare worse. Although most of the world’s poor live in rural areas, they are not, by and large, net food sellers. A forthcoming study* of nine poor countries by M. Ataman Aksoy and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, two economists at the World Bank, shows that even in very rural countries, such as Bangladesh and Zambia, only one-fifth of households sell more food than they buy. That suggests the losers may outnumber winners.
这 些影响仍然远远小于近期的粮食价格上涨，但它们究竟对穷人有没有影响，如果有是对穷人有益呢还是有害？简单来说，短期内粮食出口国获益，而净进口国受损； 农民获益，粮食购买者受损。虽然世界上大部分穷人住在农村，但总体而言，他们不是粮食净出售者。一项由世行的两位经济学家M. Ataman Aksoy Aylin和Isik-Dikmelik共同完成即将出版的研究表明，包括孟加拉国和赞比亚在内的九个贫困国家，虽然它们很落后，但仍然只有五分之一的家 庭是净购买者。这意味着自由贸易的受损者多于获益者。

But things are not so simple. The authors point out that net food buyers tend to be richer than net sellers, so high food prices, on average, transfer income from richer to poorer households. And prices are not the only route through which poverty is affected. Higher farm income boosts demand for rural labour, increasing wages for landless peasants and others who buy rather than grow their food. Several studies show this income effect can outweigh the initial price effect. Finally, the farm sector itself can grow. Decades of underinvestment in agriculture have left many poor countries reliant on imports: over time that can change.
但事情并没有这么简单。研究者指出食品净购买者 一般而言比净出售者富裕，因此整体来看，高粮价使得收入从富裕家庭转移到穷困家庭。另外价格并不是唯一对贫困有影响的因素。更高的农业收入对促进农村劳动 力的需求，刺激无地农民和只买不种者的工资上升。几项研究显示，这一过程的收入效应超过最初的价格效应。最终，农业部门自身也得以发展。数十年来在农业上 的投资不足使得许多贫困国家依赖于粮食进口：假以时日这种情况可以得到改变。

The World Bank has often argued that the balance of all these factors is likely to be positive. Although freer farm trade—and higher prices—may raise poverty rates in some countries, it will reduce them in more. One much-cited piece of evidence is a study† by Thomas Hertel, Roman Keeney, Maros Ivanic and Alan Winters. This analysis simulated the effect of getting rid of all subsidies and barriers on global prices and trade volumes. It then mapped these results on to detailed household statistics in 15 countries, which between them covered 1 billion people. Fully free trade in farm goods would reduce poverty in 13 countries while raising it in two.
世行通常认为所有这些因素的净效应是积极的。虽然更自由的贸易—和更高的价格—可能提高某些国家的贫困率，但却可能减少更多 国家的贫困率。一项由Thomas Hertel， Roman Keeney， Maros Ivanic和Alan Winters共同完成的研究常被用来证明这一点。这项分析模拟了在全球价格和贸易的规模上，去掉所有补贴和壁垒对经济的影响，然后将结果与覆盖10亿人 口的15个国家的详细人口数据结合分析。农产品完全自由贸易使13个国家的贫困率下降，只有两个国家上升。

A question of numbers
数字问题

But lately the bank seems to be taking a different line. Robert Zoellick, the bank’s president, claims that the food-price crisis will throw 100m people below the poverty line, undoing seven years of progress. His figure comes from extrapolating the results of a different study by Mr Ivanic and Will Martin, another World Bank economist. This study analyses the effects of more expensive staple foods on poverty by examining household surveys in nine countries. In seven cases, higher food prices meant more poverty. (Dani Rodrik, a blogging Harvard economist, was one of the first to highlight the tension between these studies.)
但最近世行看起来要走另外一条路线。世行行长罗伯特佐立克声称粮价危机使得1亿人处于贫困线以下，十年的经济发展化为乌 有。他的数据主要来源于Maros Ivanic和另一位世行经济学家Will Martin所做的另一项研究。这项研究通过在9个国家以户为单位进行调查，分析了价格更高的主食与贫穷的联系。在七个国家，高粮价意味着更多的贫困（哈 佛大学经济学家Dani Rodrik在自己的博客首次强调这些研究的矛盾之处）。

In fact, the bank’s results are not as contradictory as they seem. The two studies are based on different sets of countries: only Peru, Zambia and Vietnam appear in both. And the gloomy analysis measures only the effect of pricier staple foods, whereas the other examines freer trade in all farm goods. Such trade brings broader benefits: even if higher prices for staples exacerbate poverty in some countries, at least in the short term, the effect may be outweighed by increased demand for other farm exports, such as processed goods, as rich countries cut tariffs.
事实上， 世行的研究结果并不像表面上看起来这样矛盾。这两次研究基于不同国家：只有秘鲁，赞比亚和越南同时在两项研究中出现。悲观的分析只考虑价格更高的主食与经 济的联系，而另外一项研究则考虑所有对农产品进行更加自由的贸易如何作用于经济。这样的贸易带来了更广泛的利益：即使主食价格上升加剧了某些国家的贫困， 至少在短期内，因为发达国家削减关税，对其他农产品的出口需求增长足以弥补由此所带来的损失，比如加工后产品。

These subtleties suggest two conclusions. First, the bank, and others, should beware sweeping generalisations about the impact of food prices on the poor. Second, the nature of trade reform matters. Removing rich-country subsidies on staple goods, the focus of much debate in the Doha round, may be less useful in the fight against poverty than cutting tariffs would be. The food-price crisis has not hurt the case for freer farm trade. But it has shown how important it is to get it right.
这种种联系可 以引出两个结论。第一，世行和其他人应该摒弃关于粮食价格对穷人影响的种种空泛之谈。第二，贸易改革的实质至关重要。要对抗贫困，废除富裕国家对主食的补 贴，关注多哈回合的种种争论，都不如削减关税有用。粮食危机没有损害到对自由贸易认识。但它表明，解决种种弊端至关重要。

幕小后

South American defence
南美防务
Speak fraternally but carry a stick
笑里藏刀

May 29th 2008 | C***CAS, SANTIAGO AND SÃO PAULO
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月29日 / 加拉加斯、圣地亚哥、圣保罗
《经济学人》中文版

Is there a new arms race—or just overdue retooling of armies?
新的军备竞赛——或者仅是迟到的武器更新？

Reuters/路透社


GIVE or take the odd border raid and attempt to undermine a neighbour, fraternal feeling abounds in South America. Many countries are governed by people who were once leftist soul-mates. They talk of ever-greater integration. This rhetoric abounded on May 23rd, when 12 leaders met in Brasília and formally set up a Union of South American Nations. Yet like many such initiatives in the region, ambition ran far ahead of reality.
虽然偶有边界摩擦和以邻为壑的事件发生，但是南美各国间向来是称兄道弟。在许多国家，那些曾经同是左派同志的人正在当政，他们大 谈进一步的融合。就在5月23号南美12国领导人齐聚巴西利亚正式建立南美国家联盟时，这种外交辞令不绝于耳。但是就像这个地区的许多类似动议一样，这次 同样是理想大大高于现实。

Unasur (or Unasul in Portuguese) replaces a South American Community declared in 2004 and supposed to unite two existing free-trade areas, Mercosur and the Andean Community. That proved too difficult—and is likely to remain so. The new group will have the appe***nce of purposefulness, including a secretariat in Ecuador and a parliament in Bolivia, but not much more than that.
南美国家联盟取代了2004年建立的南美国家共同体，而且还要把两个已存在的自由贸易区——南方共同市场和安第斯共同体合二为一。这曾经被证明很难——而且现在困难依旧。这个新组织有实体机构，包括设在厄瓜多尔的秘书处和设在玻利维亚的议会，但是也仅此而已。

The leaders also discussed setting up a South American Defence Council as a forum to talk about defence and security. Brazil has been pushing for this. Its diplomats thought that they had an agreement to make it happen. Yet they were thwarted when Colombia declined to join because of its neighbours’ equivocal attitude to its FARC guerrillas.
领导人们还讨论建立南美防务委员会，并将之作为讨论防卫和安全事务的平台。巴西对此事颇为积极，它的外交官认为南美各国已经取得足够的共识来促成此事。但是当哥伦比亚因其邻国与哥革命武装力量游击队的暧昧关系而拒绝加入时，领导人们遇到了障碍。

Even as its leaders talk, Latin America is re-arming—or rather some South American countries are. In the broader region, including Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, total defence spending shot up to $38 billion in 2007 from $25 billion in 2003, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London think-tank. The military budgets of the biggest spenders—Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela—have been rising faster. Brazil announced a rise of 50% (or $10 billion) in its spending on hardware for 2008-11.
拉 丁美洲正在重新武装起来，至少南美洲是这样，领导人们对此并不避讳。在更广的区域内，包括墨西哥，中美洲和加勒比地区，根据伦敦国际战略研究所的测算，总 防务开支由2003年的250亿美元上升至2007年的380亿美元。军费开支最多的几个国家是巴西，哥伦比亚，智利和委内瑞拉，他们的军费开支增长速度 也比较快。巴西宣布从2008年到2011年硬件开支要增长50%。

Two things are driving the spending increases. First, military budgets were cut after many Latin American nations turned their back on military rule in the 1980s. In many countries, equipment is now ancient and dilapidated. Replacing it is a sign of more normal relations between civilian governments and their armies. Venezuela is the exception: although its leftist president, Hugo Chávez, is elected, he is a former army officer and his power base lies partly in the barracks. Venezuela’s recent purchase of two dozen Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft and 50 military helicopters from Russia may have been presented as a show of strength to the imperialists in Washington, but it was also designed to shore up support from the generals at home.
有两件事促使开支增长。第一，自上世纪80年代许多拉美国家摆脱军人统治 后，军费有所削减。许多国家的武器装备年老失修，更换装备显示了民选政府与军方更加正常的关系。委内瑞拉是个例外：虽然其左派总统查韦斯是经民选产生的， 但他曾是军方高官，而且其权力基础仍部分依靠军方。委内瑞拉最近从俄罗斯购买了20架苏-30战斗机和50架军用直升机。或许这一方面为了向华盛顿的帝国 主义者展示实力，另一方面是为了获取国内军方将领的支持。

The second reason is that after four years of faster economic growth, partly induced by high prices for commodity exports, governments have more money to spend. In Chile, the link between commodity prices and arms is written into law: the armed forces get 10% of the export revenues of Codelco, the state copper producer—a sum that amounted to $1.4 billion in 2007—for capital spending. Over the past dozen years this money has bought 340 German tanks, eight frigates, two new submarines and 28 F-16 fighters.
第二个原因 是：部分由于原材料出口价格上涨，经济持续四年快速增长，政府手中有钱可花。在智利，军费与原材料价格联动被写入法律：军方可得到国有铜厂 Codelco10%的年收入，2007年这个数字达到14亿美元。在过去十年，军方用这笔钱购买了340辆德国坦克，8艘护卫舰，两艘新潜艇和28架F -16战斗机。

Chile’s appetite for new kit is a worry for both Bolivia and Peru, which dispute its land and maritime borders respectively and which were the losers in a 19th-century war. In early May Alan García, Peru’s president, urged his peers in the region to stop buying weapons and to concentrate instead on fighting poverty. At a day-to-day level, however, relations between Chile and its neighbours are less tense than they were three decades ago when all were ruled by generals.
智利对新装备的渴 望源于其对玻利维亚和秘鲁的担忧，他们与智利分别有陆地和海洋边界纠纷，在19世纪的战争中他们都输给了智利。5月初秘鲁总统阿兰.哥西卡敦促其邻国停止 采购武器，并把精力集中于铲除贫困。但是在日常水平上，智利与邻国的关系比起三十年前三国都被军人统治的时代已经缓和了很多。



Similarly, Brazil’s arms build-up, which includes plans for a nuclear-powered submarine and new jet fighters, has not alarmed its neighbours much. Economic stability and growth, and an increasingly solid democracy, have recently made Brazilian governments more confident about acting as the regional superpower—but through diplomacy. Some Brazilian officials look askance at Colombia, whose military build-up against the FARC has the backing of the United States. But the main threat to Brazil’s ambition is Mr Chávez, who has sought to develop a network of clients in the region, dependent on his gifts of cheap oil and cash.
与智利类似，巴西的军力建设，包括核潜艇和新式战斗机采购计划，并未让邻国过于惊恐。经济稳定并持续增长和日渐稳固的民主使巴西政府近来更自信的充当地区超级大国——但不 是靠军力而是靠外交。一些巴西官员对哥伦比亚不无担忧，哥伦比亚为了对付其国内的革命武装力量游击队而进行的军力建设有美国的支持。但对巴西野心的主要威 胁是查韦斯，他依靠便宜的石油和金钱，在这个地区大肆编织代理人网络。

Venezuela’s arms purchases alarm several of its neighbours. Mr Chávez this month said airily that more tanks for Venezuela “shouldn’t worry anybody”. He promised that he would place yet more orders for Russian weapons on a planned trip to Moscow in July. What for? The president says that he would prevent the United States from setting up a military base near Venezuela’s border “whatever the cost”. He has also said that demands for greater autonomy in eastern Bolivia could lead Venezuela to intervene in support of the socialist government there.
但委内瑞拉的军购却让它的邻国有所警觉。这个月查韦斯说委内瑞拉拥有更多坦克“不应让任 何人感到担心”。他还非常肯定的说7月份访问莫斯科时，他会订购更多的武器。要这么多武器干什么呢？总统说他是为了防止美国在委内瑞拉周边建立军事基地， “不论成本有多高”。他还说玻利维亚东部想要更高水平的自治，这让委内瑞拉有机会支持那里的社会主义政权。

Mr Chávez seems to have his eye mainly on Colombia. He resents its alliance with the United States, and has expressed sympathy for the FARC. Captured guerrilla documents suggest that Venezuelan military and intelligence officers have actively helped the guerrillas. Mr Chávez responded to Colombia’s cross-border raid into Ecuador in March (which killed a FARC leader) by briefly ordering tanks to the border. “Look at the evidence and [you] conclude that Venezuela is arming for war with Colombia,” says Rocío San Miguel, a defence analyst in C***cas. It recently bought 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles (more than its total number of regular troops). These are to replace ancient Belgian rifles. But the ammunition they fire is compatible with guns used by the FARC.
查韦斯看起来 把目光主要放在哥伦比亚身上，他对哥伦比亚与美国的盟友关系非常不满，而且已经向哥伦比亚革命武装力量游击队表示了同情。被截获的游击队文件暗示委内瑞拉 军事和情报官员曾积极帮助游击队。在哥伦比亚跨过国界进入厄瓜多尔境内追捕游击队成员时（此次行动杀死了一名游击队领导人），查韦斯把坦克短暂调往哥委边 界。加拉加斯的防务分析家Rocío San Miguel说“看到这些证据，你可以得出结论：委内瑞拉是为了与哥伦比亚打仗而更新装备。“最近委内瑞拉采购了100000支（比起常规部队总人数还 多）卡拉什尼科夫来福枪用以替换老式的比利时来福枪。但是它采购的弹药却与革命武装力量游击队所用的枪支一致。

Hitherto Colombia’s military build-up has been wholly focused on counter-insurgency. But in what appears to be a defensive response to Mr Chávez, it has placed an order with Israel for Kfir fighter jets. According to Mark Bromley of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Colombia has also been talking to Sweden about buying an airborne early-warning system and a tanker plane.
至今为止哥伦比亚的军力建设完全是为了应对国内的叛乱。查韦斯表面上只是采取防守反应，他向以色列订购了幼师战机。根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的Mark Bromley的观察，哥伦比亚已经向瑞典表达了购买空中预警系统的愿望。

Take into account the weakened dollar as well as economic growth, and in many countries the arms spending looks less threatening. At least until 2006, defence spending in Latin America as a whole was running at only 1.3% of GDP, according to the IISS. Only the non-NATO European countries spend less. Some of the recent spending in South America involves retooling armies that used to repress their own populations for new roles, such as peacekeeping or Amazonian surveillance. Nevertheless, some of the recent purchases are cause for concern—especially given that so much talk of South American unity is just that.
考虑到疲软的美元，虚弱的经济增长，以及许多国家的军费开支看起来没有什么威胁，因此根据伦敦国际战略研究所的研究，至少在 2006年，整个拉丁美洲的军费开支只占GDP的1.3%，只有欧洲的非北约国家比它们花的更少。最近南美国家的部分军费开支，包括更新装备，是为了在国 内事务上扮演新角色，比如维和或是亚马逊雨林监控。然而还有一些最近的军购值得引起关注——尤其是考虑到最近南美国家正在大谈团结。

幕小后

Amazon worldwide bestsellers
亚马逊全球畅销书
Chinese takeaway
中国外卖
Jun 5th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年6月5日
《经济学人》印刷版
Three things interest Westerners about China: food, fertility and finance
西方人对中国感兴趣的三件事情：食物、丰产和财经


“THE China Study” is the world’s biggest-selling book about all things Chinese because it touches on two American obsessions. The first is that you will only live longer if you are able to reduce the risk of suffering a heart attack, diabetes and cancer. The second is that there exists a conspiracy of powerful lobbies, government entities and opportunistic scientists who must be overcome. The Campbells, father and son, are there to show how to achieve both.
“中国研究”是全球销量最好的有关中国人方方面面的书籍，因为它触及了美国人最关心的两个问题。第一个：只有降低得心脏病、糖尿病和癌症的风险你才能够活得更长一些。第二个：这个世界上存在着一个由强力集团、政府实体和机会主义科学家们策划的阴谋，我们必须去挫败这些机会主义科学家。坎贝尔（Campbell）父子向我们展示如何做到这两件事情。
“After a long career in research and policymaking,” says Colin Campbell, the elder of the two authors, “I have decided to step ‘out of the system.’ I have decided to disclose why Americans are so confused. As a taxpayer who foots the bill for research and health policy in America, you deserve to know that many of the common notions you have been told about food, health and disease are wrong.”
“在长时间地从事研究和决策工作之后，”两位作者中的年长者柯林•坎贝尔（Collin Campbell）说：“我决定‘跳出这个体系’。我决定去揭露为什么美国人如此困惑。作为一名给美国的研究工作和健康政策买单的纳税人，你有权知道：许 多你们被告知的有关食品、健康和疾病的常识，都是错误的。
So who is right? The answer is the Chinese. Thomas Jefferson advised Americans that meat should be treated as a condiment for vegetables. Jefferson, like China, is now in fashion. In a nutshell: “Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants.”
那么谁是正确的？答案是：中国人。托马斯•杰斐逊曾建议美国人：肉食应该作为蔬菜的调味品。杰斐逊，像中国一样，现在正在流行。简单地说吧：“进食，不要太多，绝大多数为植物。”
Bestselling books about China
有关中国的畅销书
1.The China Study: The Most Comprehensive Study of Nutrition Ever Conducted
中国研究：迄今为止最全面的营养学研究
by T. Colin Campbell and Thomas M. Campbell
2.The Man Who Loved China: The Fantastic Story of the Eccentric Scientists Who Unlocked the Mysteries of the Middle Kingdom
热爱中国的人：一个关于古怪的科学家们揭开中国神秘面纱的奇异故事
by Simon Winchester
3.A Bull in China: Investing Profitability in the World’s Greatest Market
中国牛：世界最大市场中的投资收益性
by Jim Rogers
4.The Tao of Fertility
丰饶之道
by Daoshing Ni and Dana Herko
5.The Heavenly Man: The Remarkable True Story of Chinese Christian Brother Yun
天国之人：中国基督教兄弟YUN非凡的真实故事
by Brother Yun and Paul Hattaway
6.China (Lonely Planet Guide)
中国（孤单星球指南）
by Damien Harper
7.Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China
野天鹅：中国的三个女儿
by Jung Chang（作者：张戎）
8.The Infertility Cure
不育治疗（译注：或者指治愈贫瘠？）
by Randine Lewis
9.The Fortune Cookie Chronicles
幸运饼编年史
by Jennifer 8. Lee
10.China Fireworks: How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the Fastest-Growing Economy in the World
中国烟花（译注：或指“激情”？）：如何从全球最快的经济增长中获得大量财富
by Robert Hsu
Source: Global sales from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.ca, Amazon.de, Amazon.fr and Amazon.jp from May 1st-31st 2008
资料来源：2008年5月1日至31日 Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.ca, Amazon.de, Amazon.fr and Amazon.jp 的全球销量。

幕小后

Asia’s navies
亚洲海军
Into the wide blue yonder
迈向蓝海
Jun 5th 2008 | SINGAPORE
From The Economist print edition
2008年6月5日　新加坡
《经济学人》印刷版

Asia’s main powers are building up their navies. Is this the start of an arms race?
亚洲大国的海军建设如火如荼。这是一场军备竞赛的开始吗？



IN THE 15th century China possessed a mighty navy of “treasure fleets”. They sailed as far as Africa and the Persian Gulf, spreading China’s economic and political influence across several continents. Had this naval expansion continued, some scholars say, China could have dominated the world. But successive emperors turned the nation inwards on itself, seafaring was banned and the country’s great shipyards were closed. In Asia as elsewhere, it is America that rules the waves—its naval might is still needed, for example, to help defend the Malacca Strait, route for much of the region’s oil and other trade.
在15世纪，中国海 军非常强大，它有一支“寻宝舰队”，这个舰队的航迹远至非洲和波斯湾，把中国的政治和经济影响撒播到好几片大陆。有些学者说，如果中国海军持续膨胀，那么 中国早就称霸世界了。但是继任的皇帝却闭关锁国，取缔航海事业，关闭宏伟的船坞。与世界其他地方一样，在亚洲，美国同样是弄潮儿，人们需要它的海军威力， 比如说，帮助防守本地区石油及其他贸易的必经之路——马六甲海峡。
Today a resurgent, confident and globalising China is rebuilding its naval strength. Like India, its rising Asian rival, it already has an impressive army. But both countries are finding that rapid economic growth is providing the money to realise long-cherished dreams of building ocean-going “blue-water” navies that can project power far from their home shores.
今天，复兴的，自信的，在全球都有影响力的中国正在重建其海军力量，就像其崛起的对手印度已经有一支令人刮目相看的军队。两国都发现快速的经济增长使得他们有钱来实现建设“蓝水”海军这个期待已久的梦想，从而可以布国威于四方。
In the past two years China’s navy has acquired new destroyers, frigates and submarines, some home-built, some (including its most advanced kit) Russian. A recent study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that China was also close to beginning the production of aircraft-carriers, which would give it the ability to project airpower over great distances. China has long wanted to create a force capable of thwarting the intervention of America’s Pacific fleet in any war over Taiwan. But it is also increasingly keen to protect its supplies of fuel and raw materials from threats such as piracy and terrorism.
在过去的两年，中国海军已经获得新式的驱逐舰，护卫舰和潜艇，其中一些是本国建造的，另一些（包 括其最先进的战舰）是从俄罗斯购买的。最近伦敦国际战略研究所的研究作出结论，认为中国即将开始建造航空母舰，这会使中国获得大片区域制空权的能力。中国 早就希望打造可以在任何牵涉到台湾的战争中阻断美国太平洋舰队的力量，它同时越来越迫切的希望保护其石油和原材料供应免受海盗和恐怖主义的威胁。
America has particular worries about a naval base China is building on Hainan island, from where its vessels will have easy access to South-East Asia’s shipping lanes—most importantly the Malacca Strait. The Indians are afraid that China’s reason for building ports in Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and conducting naval exercises with Pakistan, is to extend its dominance into the Indian Ocean. Thousands of Chinese-flagged merchant ships now cross the ocean each year, giving China plenty of justification for increasing its naval presence. India, in turn, is pushing into the South China Sea, and seeking port facilities in Vietnam.
美国尤其担心中国正在海南岛上建设的海军基地，军舰从这里出发可以很快到达东南亚的航道——最 重要的是马六甲海峡。印度人担心中国为缅甸，巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡建造港口的目的，它与巴基斯坦开展海军演习，印度人害怕中国将统治扩展至印度洋。每年有几 千艘中国商船传过印度洋，所以中国有充分的理由增强其在本地区的海军存在。印度则把手伸向南海，他正在越南寻找港口设施。
India shares China’s concern that, as trade volumes and energy consumption soar, its security is vulnerable to any disruption of sea traffic. The flagships of its new blue-water navy will be three aircraft-carriers—the same number as Britain. The first of two Indian-built carriers is now under construction, with a launch date of 2010. A third, bought second-hand from Russia, is suffering delays and disputes over its refitting.
印度同中国一样担忧当贸易量与石油消费飙升时，国家安全面对海上交通中断非常脆 弱。其蓝水海军的旗舰将是三艘航空母舰，与英国相当，其中两艘由印度本国生产，第一艘目前正在建造过程中，预计将于2010年下水。第三艘是从俄罗斯购买 的二手潜艇，目前就其改装产生了分歧，因此交易被推迟了。
Tim Huxley of the IISS says that with so much attention focused on China and India, the naval expansion of other Asian countries is often overlooked. Yet several, especially South Korea, are also building long-range naval capabilities. Besides new submarines and destroyers, the South Koreans, like the Japanese, are commissioning helicopter-carriers.
伦敦国际战略研究所的Tim Huxley 说，人们过于关注中国与印度，而其他国家的海军扩张经常被忽视。一些国家，尤其是韩国也在打造海军远程作战的能力。除了新型潜艇与驱逐舰，韩国也像日本一样部署了直升机母舰。
Is this an arms race? As Asia’s defence ministers and military chiefs gathered in Singapore last weekend for their main annual summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue (organised by the IISS), the conclusion of most analysts seemed to be: not yet. A classic arms race, says Mr Huxley, consists of two main countries that have one dominating dispute. Asia is different. Instead, it has the makings of a pair of opposing alliances. A “quad” group (India, America, Australia and Japan) plus Singapore now conduct naval manoeuvres together. So do China and Pakistan. But China and India seem keen to avoid provoking each other. Indeed, they are seeking to build good relations between their navies.
这 是一场军备竞赛吗？当上周末，亚洲的国防部长和军方将领齐聚新加坡，参加每年一度的重要峰会——香格里拉对话（由伦敦国际战略研究所组织）时，看起来大部 分分析家的结论是：还未开始。Huxley说，典型的军备竞赛包括两个主要的国家和一个主导的争议。亚洲并不是这样，它有可能发展出两个敌对同盟——“四 国”组织（印，美，澳，日）加上新加坡，他们正在举行联合海军演习。另外一个则是中国加巴基斯坦。但是中国和印度看起来都渴望不要激怒对方。事实上，中印 正努力在两国海军间构建良好的关系。
Military chiefs at the summit insisted they were not seeking an arms race and gave various justifications for all their new warships. Rather implausibly, China and others insisted they were mainly to ward off pirates and terrorists. South Korea’s defence minister, Lee Sang-hee, said North Korea’s navy threatened its maritime supply lines. As if to prove him right, on May 30th the North test-fired three ship-to-ship missiles in the Yellow Sea.
峰会上的军方将领坚称他们不寻求军备竞赛，也不为获得新军舰寻找众多理由。中国和其 它一些国家坚持说他们主要是为了打击海盗和恐怖分子，这让人难以相信。韩国国防部长李相熹则说朝鲜海军威胁到了韩国海上供应线。就好象为了证明确有此事， 朝鲜5月30号在黄海试发了三枚舰对舰导弹。
Disaster relief is also commonly cited as a reason to have a bigger navy. Within days of Myanmar’s cyclone, three existing blue-water navies—those of America, France and Britain—had ships off the country’s coast, laden with supplies (see article). South Korea’s and Japan’s new helicopter carriers could also one day be useful for moving troops in United Nations peacekeeping operations.
灾难应对也作为拥有更强的海军的理由而被常常引用。在缅甸风在发生几天后，三个现存的拥有蓝海海军的国家——美国，英国，法国把载满物资的军舰开到了缅甸海岸。韩国和日本的直升机母舰也可以为联合国维和行动运送部队而在一天内部署到位。
So there are plenty of ways for Asian powers to use their navies co-operatively. Equally, plenty of disputes might more easily escalate into war if the countries concerned had the naval strength to wage it. The potentially oil-rich Spratly and P***cel Islands, for example, are claimed in whole or part by six countries. In 1988 more than 70 Vietnamese sailors died in a naval battle with China in the Spratlys. Dozens of Koreans died in battles over a disputed sea border in 1999 and 2002.
所以亚洲国加的海军协作大有用武之地。相同的，如果亚洲国家有海军力量为后盾，大量的冲突也更容易升级为战争。比方说，六 个国家都声称对潜在的富含石油的帕拉塞尔群岛（译者注:西方国家对我国西沙群岛的称呼）部分或全部的拥有主权。在1988年，超过70名越南水手在与中国 争夺岛礁的海上战斗中死亡。在1999年和2002年几十个韩国人死于在韩朝海上争议地区爆发的冲突。
Even without any ill intent, accidents will happen at sea. France’s defence minister, Hervé Morin, worries about all the new submarines that will soon be lurking in the region’s shallow and crowded shipping lanes. If one went missing, or suffered a collision, there is a danger of this being misconstrued as hostile action. He argues that to prevent minor incidents escalating in this way, Asian countries need to invest a lot more time in discussions of regional security and do more to replace mutual suspicion with co-operation and confidence-building. If not, Asia’s cautious naval build-up could indeed mutate into a classic, old-fashioned arms race.
即使没有恶意，这片海域也可能发生意外事件。法国国防部长Hervé Morin担心新型潜艇会很快塞满航道，给这个地区蒙上一层阴影。如果有一方擦枪走火，或是遭遇冲突，就有可能被误解为敌对行动。他认为为了防止小型事件 按此发展，亚洲国家需要花更多时间在地区安全方面展开对话，采取更多行动用合作互信取代相互猜疑。如果不这样，亚洲谨慎的海军建设真有可能发展成典型的老 式的军备竞赛。

幕小后

Telecoms
电信业
International roaming
国际漫游
Jun 5th 2008
From Economist.com
2008年6月5日
《经济学人》网站
Why have mobile-phone operators taken so long to tie up across borders?
为何移动电话运营商花费了如此长的时间来加紧跨越国界的联系呢？



FOR a business that has done so much to make people feel closer together mobile-phone operators have been wary about extending the hand of friendship across borders. But as a new round of consolidation kicks off in Europe, America and elsewhere it seems that the world is getting smaller for the mobile-phone giants.
做为一个主要是让人们感觉彼此之间的联系更加紧密的生意，移动电话运营商非常谨慎地对待延长“友谊之手”跨越国界。但是随着新一轮的合并在欧洲，美国和其它地方的开始，对于那些移动巨头来说，世界变的更小了。
France Telecom admitted on Thursday June 5th that it had begun discussion with TeliaSonera about a long-anticipated takeover offer for the Swedish firm, in a deal worth some SKr252 billion ($42 billion). The same day on the other side of the Atlantic, Verizon Wireless agreed to acquire Alltel, a regional operator, in a $27 billion deal that would create America’s largest mobile company.
法国电信在6月5日星期四承认开始与瑞典的桑内拉电信集团就有关一项期待已 久的对于这家瑞典公司的收购意向展开讨论。这笔交易价值2520亿瑞典克朗（420亿美元）。在同一天的大西洋另一端，Verizon Wireless同意收购一家地区性的运营商Alltel。这笔270亿美元的交易将造就美国最大的移动公司。
This deal and potential tie-up are the latest of a flurry of activity among the world’s big mobile operators. In developed ***** the prospects for growth are poor—in many countries there are more mobile phones than people. So bulking up makes sense: with greater size comes the opportunity to cut costs and reap other rewards that come with economies of scale. And opportunities abound. In Europe mobile-telecoms ***** are highly fragmented and ripe for more consolidation. Deutsche Telekom made its own move across borders last month with the acquisition of a 25% stake and control of the management of OTE, a Greek operator.
这笔交易已经潜在的合并交易是世界大型移动运营商当中最近的热点。在发达市场增长的前景乏力——在许多国家移动电 话比人还多。所以合并是合情合理的：拥有更大的规模可以有机会减少成本并获得规模效益。机会大量存在。欧洲移动通信市场是高度零散而且合并的时机已经成 熟。德意志电信通过收购25%的希腊运营商OTE的股份并获得经营权使得自己走出国门。
France Telecom cannot yet celebrate its foray abroad, which, if successful, would create Europe’s biggest mobile-phone company by revenue, and boast 237m customers in 30 countries. The firm is particularly enticing because along with its more mature operations in the Nordic region come faster growing businesses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The board of its Swedish target has rejected the informal offer of cash and shares as too low, despite the bid representing a big premium on the company’s share price before the French firm’s interest became apparent in April.
法国电信还未到庆贺其在国外“突袭”成果的时候。如果这次“突袭”成功，将造就——以收入规模来衡量——欧洲最大的移动电话运营商，拥有遍布30个国家的 2.37亿客户。这个公司特别吸引人，因为它在北欧地区有成熟的运作而且东欧和中亚有着快速增长的市场。尽管出价比法国公司4月份流露出收购意向前该公司 的股价有很大溢价，瑞典的董事会还是由于出价偏低拒绝了这笔现金加股份的非正式收购意向。
Even if that deal falls through there are plenty of other possible tie-ups in the offing. Spain’s Telefonica and Britain’s Vodafone are both thought by some analysts to be on the hunt for acquisitions and smaller firms in Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland. Vodafone may bid to extend its stake in Vodacom, a South African operator. A handful of other countries could make tempting targets.
如果这笔交易失败，那么还有另外的收购合并交易发生。一些分析师认为西班牙电信和英国的沃达丰公司都在比利时，荷兰，葡萄牙，瑞士物色较小规模的公司做为收购对象。沃达丰可能会购入一家南非运营商Vodacom的股份。一大堆其它国家的公司都会成为诱人的收购目标。
More deals are in the works elsewhere. Late last month India’s Reliance Communications said that it was in talks with South Africa’s MTN about a deal that would forge a firm valued at over $60 billion with a presence in India, Africa and the Middle East and with over 114m subscribers. Reliance’s move came shortly after MTN broke off talks with Bharti Airtel, an Indian rival to Reliance, when structuring a deal between the two proved too complicated.
更多的在其他地方的交易也在计划中。上个月晚些时 候，印度的Reliance Communications表示它正与南非的MTN在商讨一笔交易，这笔交易会造就价值超过600亿，并且在印度，非洲和中东拥有1.14亿用户的公 司。在MTN与Bharti Airtel谈判破裂后不久，Reliance就马上与其进行谈判。Bharti Airtel是Reliance的一家印度竞争对手，Bharti Airtel与MTN的交易当时被证明太复杂了。
The current clamour to do deals is driven by the belief that bigger is better. And cross border tie-ups are also becoming more acceptable to regulators. Previously cross-border collaboration between mobile operators was accepted, but that was usually as far as it went.
现在合并交易的呼声是受“大即是好”的信念驱使的。而且跨境交易也越来越被监管者所接受。此前移动运营商的跨境协作可以被接受,但是接受度也就仅限于协作。
As with other businesses such as airlines that are reckoned to be strategic by governments, alliances were tolerated by regulators while full mergers were blocked. But as is happening in other businesses such as energy, governments in Europe and elsewhere are becoming less inclined to use the security concerns they used to cite to prevent certain types businesses from coming together across borders. It has become apparent that preventing foreign energy companies from gaining access to national ***** has little bearing on energy security. By the same token allowing mobile operators to fall to foreign predators is unlikely to compromise national security. So even if some the current set of proposed deals among mobile-phone operators fails to come to fruition it still looks likely that a round of consolidation is on the way.
如同其它行业比如航空业会被政府看作国家战略意义上的产业，结盟可以被监管者容忍，但是完全合并会被阻止。但是在其它行业 比如能源，欧洲和其它地区的政府变的比以往更少的倾向于引用国家安全考虑来阻止某些类型的跨境合并。阻止外国公司进入国内能源市场显然很少影响到国家能源安全。同样地，允许国内移动电话运营商与国外运营商合并也不会危害到国家安全。所以即使有些现在移动运营商合并的交易未能达成，新一轮的合并显然已经开始了。

幕小后

[2008.06.21] American Foreign Policy 帝国本能归类于： 文艺 — Eco Team @ 6:56 pm
American Foreign Policy
美国的外交政策Imperial instincts
帝国本能Jun 19th 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年6月19日
《经济学人》印刷版
America’s longing for an empire has a long history
历史悠久的帝国梦

NEARLY 50 years ago, when William Appleman Williams, one of the 20th century’s most important historians of diplomacy, drew attention to America’s persistent search for an empire, he was denounced for being pro-communist.
约半个世纪前，二十世纪最重要的外交史学家威廉•阿普曼•威廉斯就曾让人注意这样一个状况，即美国一直顽固地在谋求成为帝国，然而当时人们却斥之为亲共分子。
To challenge deeply held beliefs about American innocence was shocking enough. To contradict cold-war propaganda was worse. Recently, however, such ideological conformism has been disappearing. It has become acceptable to speak of empire, both among those who defend American foreign policy and those who condemn it. “If people want to say we’re an imperial power-fine,” says William Kristol, a right-wing commentator. Two years ago, in “Dangerous Nation”, Mr Kristol’s fellow neoconservative, Robert Kagan, also acknowledged the aggressive side of American behaviour.
对美国人向来纯真这种根深蒂固的观念提出挑战本身就够令人震惊的；而对冷战宣传进行驳斥就更糟。然而，这种意识形态方面的传统观念最近正在逐渐消失。无论是对维护还是谴责美国外交政策的人来说，现在说美国是一个帝国时亦更为坦然了。右翼评论家威廉•克里斯托尔表示：”要是别人说美国是一个帝国–那就让他们么去说吧”。二年前，与克里斯托尔先生一样同为新保守派的罗伯特•卡根在《危险国家》一书中亦承认，美国人的所作所为具有侵略性的一面。
Now Walter Nugent, of Notre Dame University, has produced a comprehensive history of how the thrust of empire shaped American history. He stops short of recent years, scarcely mentioning the Iraq war. But he makes it plain that the policies of the present administration have a pedigree that goes back even to the Founding Fathers: Thomas Jefferson himself hoped for “an empire for liberty”.
圣母大学的瓦尔特•钮金先生撰写了一部通史，对以帝国作为主题是如何塑造美国历史的问题进行了诠释。这部著作并未涉及近年，对伊拉克战争更是几乎只字不提。但是，钮金先生明确指出，本届政府的各项政策，若追本溯源，甚至可以上及那些开国元勋：托马斯杰佛逊自己就曾希望”建造一个自由的帝国。”
Mr Nugent points out that although there have been many accounts of specific events and ideas-among them the expulsion of the southern Indians down the Trail of Tears, Manifest Destiny or the Spanish-American war and the conquest of the Philippines-”telling the whole story reveals patterns that individual episodes do not.”
钮金先生指出，通史对具体事件和概念着墨颇多–南方印第安人被迫沿 “血泪之路”西迁、天定命运、美西大战和征服菲律宾–但是”展现完整的历史却能让人看到历史片段无法揭示的脉络。”
Expansion came in three phases. First, the drive from the Atlantic colonies to the Pacific, in which settler pressure, boosted by extraordinary demographic growth, demanded the acquisition of territory. In the second, America acquired colonies and protectorates around the Pacific and the Caribbean. With the second world war and the cold war, “a third phase of American empire-building, still with us, came into being.” Thus, Mr Nugent concludes, “we have always been an imperial nation, and remain so, but the shape of the American empire has shifted over time.”
美国的领土扩张分为三个阶段。第一个阶段，从大西洋沿岸的各殖民地推进到太平洋沿岸。在此阶段，受人口异常增长推动，定居人口的压力迫使要求获得领土。第二阶段，美国获得了沿太平洋和加勒比海沿岸的殖民地和保护领地。伴随着第二次世界大战和冷战，”构建美帝国的第三个阶段开始起步，并且这一阶段迄今仍未结束”。 因此,钮金先生得出结论：”美国过去是帝国，至今仍是，只不过美帝国的形态与时俱变罢了。”
Perhaps the most original section of the book is Mr Nugent’s account of how America, in negotiation with Britain, France and Spain at the end of the war of independence, acquired the territory between the Appalachian mountains and the Mississippi. He points out that in 1782 hardly any Americans were pressing to follow acquisition with settlement. So Benjamin Franklin, John Jay and John Adams were able to exploit the rivalry of the European powers to acquire this huge territory without either conquest or migration.
对于美国如何在独立战争尾期在与英国、法国和西班牙的谈判中获得了阿巴拉契亚山脉至密西西比河之间的领土，钮金先生在通史中作了解释，而这一部分或许也是全书最独具慧眼部分。钮金先生指出，几乎没有美国人在1782年迫切要求在获得领土后就进行定居。因此，本杰明•富兰克林、约翰•杰伊和约翰•亚当斯能够利用欧洲列强纷争在既未动一枪一卒也没有移居一人的情况下获得这一大片领土。
Successive chapters recount the Louisiana Purchase (Mr Nugent maintains that Napoleon almost certainly sold territory to which he did not have clear title); the exploitation of Napoleon’s invasion of Spain to acquire the Floridas; the Mexican war and the addition of the present states of California, Arizona, New Mexico and more at the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848. He also shows how Britain, by brandishing naval power, was able to prevent America from taking over British Columbia. He goes on with William Seward’s purchase of Alaska and the colonial or pseudo-colonial adventures of the Spanish-American war and the early 20th century: Hawaii, Cuba, the Philippines, Guam, Panama, Haiti and Nic***gua.
《通史》后续章节对下列历史事件作了叙述：购买路易斯安娜（钮金先生坚信，拿破仑并不拥有其出售领土的明确产权，这一点几乎可以肯定的）；利用拿破仑入侵西班牙而获得佛罗里达；通过1848年的《瓜达卢佩一伊达尔戈条约》又获得如今的加利福尼亚、亚利桑那和新墨西哥等州。钮金先生叙述了英国如何凭借海军力量阻止美国占领英属哥伦比亚。通史还触及了及威廉•西华德购买阿拉斯加、美西战争这种变相的殖民冒险战争及二十世纪早期历史：夏威夷、古巴、菲律宾、关岛、巴拿马、海地和尼加拉瓜。
Mr Nugent interprets the whole of the American story in terms of the contrast between the ideals of the republic and the “unadmitted reality” of empire, explaining this as a consequence of the American claim to “exceptionalism”. His countrymen “should understand that their claim to exceptionalism is valid only in terms of their unp***lleled growth and the remarkable natural resources their vast country has provided them. They are not exceptional, however, in any sense of moral innocence or purity.”
通过将共和理想与”不予承认的帝国事实”进行对照，钮金先生诠释了全部美国历史。他解释说，之所以存在”共和理想”和”帝国事实”这种状态是因为美国人自称”有权例外”。但是，美国人应当明白，只有凭藉美国无可匹敌的发展及其巨大的疆域所给予美国人的丰富自然资源，美国人才能自称有权例外。从道德行为上来看，美国人既不纯真，也毫无例外之处。
In this he undervalues, quite unfairly, the genuine originality of the American political achievement. If Americans have always had