幕小后

[2008.05.22] China helps itself 中国自强不息归类于： 中国 — Eco Team @ 3:52 pm
The earthquake in Sichuan
四川地震
China helps itself
自强不息

May 22nd 2008 | JIANGYOU
From The Economist print edition
The government’s relief effort is impressive; even more inspiring is what ordinary people are doing to fill the gaps
政府的救灾行动令人印象深刻，然而更鼓舞人心的是普通百姓为抗震救灾所做的贡献
SOME 200 survivors of China’s deadliest earthquake in more than 30 years line up for a handout of food. It looks good. There is rice gruel, braised diced pork, courgettes and hot steamed buns. There are also no officials. The Communist Party likes to be seen as society’s main benefactor, but this is private aid.
在中国近30多年来最严重的一场地震之后，有200多名幸存者排队领取救济粮。伙食还是不错的，有大米粥，炖猪肉，西葫芦，还有热腾腾的馒头。而提供这些的并非政府。中共一向以社会福利事业的带头人自居，然而这次却是私人援助。


The party has mobilised its own forces on a huge scale in response to the disaster on May 12th in the south-western province of Sichuan, which has left more than 74,000 dead or missing, 247,000 injured and 5m homeless. More than 100,000 troops and police have been deployed to help survivors and to rescue people trapped by rubble and landslides. Hopes of finding more are fast dwindling. But the scale of non-governmental involvement has been just as striking.
五月12日，位于中国西 南的四川省发生地震灾害，死亡与失踪的人口总数已有七万四千人，还有24万7千人受伤，五百万人无家可归。灾难发生之后，共产党已经动员了巨大的力量投入 抗灾工作。十万名解放军战士和武警官兵奔赴灾区，帮助受灾群众，并组织抢救因建筑倒塌和山体滑坡受困的居民。随着时间的流逝，搜寻幸存者的希望愈加渺茫。然而在这次灾难中投入的非官方力量非常引人关注。The food handout in Jiangyou, a small city 115km (70 miles) east of the epicentre, was being carried out by volunteers from an ad hoc group of private catering companies from another province. The recipients were refugees from the nearby town of Beichuan, which was all but flattened by the earthquake. Their appetising hot meal contrasted with the instant noodles and biscuits offered at other food stations.
来自外省几家私人饮食公司的志愿者自觉组织起来，在距震中115千米的江油市发放救济粮。救济的对象是来自附近的北川市的难民，北川市在地震中被整个夷为平地。他们所提供的热餐美味可口，比其他食物站点所提供的方便面和饼干要好太多了。
Even had it wanted to, it would have been difficult for the government to keep relief efforts in the hands of its usual instruments: military and civilian officials, the Communist Youth League and the Chinese Red Cross. The disaster struck at a time of nationalist fervour fuelled by a widespread feeling that China was being unfairly criticised for its handling of unrest in Tibet. Sentiments were further aroused by blanket coverage of the earthquake in the state-controlled media—a departure from the party’s usual tongue-tied approach to disasters.
在目前的形势下，政 府即使想把救灾行动控制在官方渠道中（包括解放军、民政部门、共青团和中华红十字会），也是有心无力。灾难暴发之时，中国国内民族主义情绪正处于高峰。在 之前西藏动乱事件中，外界的报道在中国国内引起了强烈不满。中国民众普遍认为国际社会对中国进行了不公正的批评。官方媒体一反中共以往在大灾中三缄其口的 态度，对地震进行了广泛详尽的报道，又在民众间激起了对灾区人民的同情。
Responding to the mood, the government declared three days of public mourning from May 19th. Disasters do not normally rate such attention—the last day of public mourning was 11 years ago, on the death of Deng Xiaoping. In Beijing thousands of people gathered in Tiananmen Square to observe an official call for three minutes of silence. They also, spontaneously, chanted slogans and punched their fists in the air, shouting “Come on China!” as police looked on warily. In Chengdu, the provincial capital, on May 21st a police car shadowed about 100 unofficial relief workers who marched through the streets after dark, carrying candles and chanting patriotic slogans.
为顺应这种情绪，政府宣布将5月19日之后的三天定为全国哀悼日。在中国还很少有自然灾害受到如此级别的重 视，上一次的全国哀悼活动乃是11年前邓小平逝世时举行的。在北京，为了响应官方号召的三分钟默哀活动，数千市民聚集到天安门广场。他们自发地挥舞拳头， 呼喊着“中国加油”的口号。此时，广场上的警察们小心地关注着默哀现场的状况。5月21日，在四川省省会成都，100名民间救灾工作者在天黑时分举行游 行。他们手持蜡烛，呼喊着爱国口号。一辆警车如影随形地紧跟着游行队伍。
A fast-growing middle class with money to spare on travel and, as it now seems, on charity, did not wait for official encouragement to help out in Sichuan. Thousands of volunteers headed to the disaster zone, from businessmen to Christian youth. Their cars, some bedecked with flags and slogans, ply the expressway between Chengdu and Jiangyou.
中国中产阶级的队伍正在迅速壮大。他们有闲钱可以用来旅 游，灾难之时则可以进行慈善活动。这次他们没有坐等政府宣传号召，便自发地组织起来前往四川进行救援工作。数以千计的志愿者奔赴灾区，这其中有商人，也有 青年基督徒。从成都到江油的高速公路上，志愿者的车辆往来不断，有些人还在车上打出了旗帜和标语。
Hundreds of taxis helped ferry the injured to hospitals in the city. At Mianyang, a big city close to Jiangyou, police erected barricades on an approach road to a stadium sheltering some 20,000 refugees, to prevent its being clogged by volunteer vehicles. A government plea for unofficial volunteers to stay away from the disaster zone and concentrate instead on activities such as raising money and donating blood has fallen on deaf ears.
数百辆出租车将伤员送往城市里的医院。在绵阳（江油附近的一座大城市）的一座大型体育馆里，收容了两万名灾民。警方在体 育场周围设立了路障，以防志愿者的车辆阻塞交通。政府向志愿者们发表了通告，希望他们离开灾区，通过捐款和献血等活动支援救灾工作。然而志愿者对此却置若 罔闻。
The government seems little inclined to deter the volunteers more rigorously. It knows that public opinion is mostly on its side. The prime minister, Wen Jiabao, appears to have earned considerable kudos by rushing to the scene and staying there for five days to direct relief operations, at one point in tears.
政府并没有进一步为难志愿者。执政者很清楚，这次民意是站在政府一方的。温家宝总理在第一时间奔赴灾区现场，在当地直接指挥救灾工作长达五天，期间甚至潸然泪下。这一举动已经博得了全国上下的一致好评。
Inside the stadium grounds, which are guarded by militia in camouflage uniforms, stalls set up by volunteer groups offer the refugees services ranging from psychological counselling to the (seemingly more popular) charging of mobile-telephone batteries. An American nurse at one stall helps doctors examine children. In the town of Shifang, south-west of Jiangyou, Buddhist monks say prayers for victims in a temple where the government has settled hundreds of refugees.
志愿者团体在大型体育场内立起了很多服务站点， 为灾民提供服务，而身着迷彩服的民兵部队则负责维持秩序。提供的服务涉及面很广，从心理咨询到手机电池充电无所不包，而后者似乎更受欢迎。在其中的一处服 务站，一名美国护士正在帮助医生为受灾儿童检查身体。当地政府把数百名难民安排在位于江油西南的什邡市的一座寺庙里避难，寺庙中的僧侣为罹难者颂经超度。
The combination of government and volunteer effort appears to have had good results. In refugee camps on the periphery of the disaster zone, tent areas appear clean and orderly, with adequate supplies of food and clean water. There have been no reports of serious outbreaks of disease. Most refugees seem in reasonable spirits. Tents, however, are a problem. Officials say there are still far from enough proper ones. Many refugees are sheltering under makeshift tarpaulin structures. Some Chengdu residents, fearing aftershocks, have taken to sleeping in tents. Demand has pushed up the cost of a small tent fourfold, residents complain, despite government orders to retailers to rein in prices of relief-related materials.
政府与志愿者的协作努力收到了良好的成效。在灾区外围的难民营中，帐篷 井然有序，净水与食物供应充足，至今还没有大规模疫情爆发的报道。大多数受灾群众的情绪稳定。然而帐篷的供应是一个问题。政府称目前的帐篷供应还远远不 够。许多居民还住在临时搭建的帆布篷里。由于害怕余震，部分成都居民也开始在帐篷里过夜。居民抱怨说，由于供不应求，尽管政府已经对零售商下达命令，严格 控制救灾物资的价格，小型帐篷的价格还是飞涨到了原先的四倍。
Much of the volunteer effort has involved individuals or small groups. China is still wary of large NGOs and has none that is truly independent of the government specialising in disaster relief. But in recent years the party has begun to acknowledge more openly that there may a role for them. Official press coverage of the earthquake, although careful to highlight the party’s contributions, has also paid rare tribute to the unofficial volunteers.
很 多自愿者行动是由私人或者小团体组织展开的。中国对待大型非政府组织的态度仍然非常谨慎，就目前而言，中国还没有真正独立于政府之外的专业救灾组织。不 过，近年来中国政府对非政府组织的角色认识逐渐开放。在官方媒体对地震灾害的报道中，虽然着力突出共产党的援助，对民间志愿者的行为也大加赞扬，这种情况 在中国非常罕见。
The government has been encouraging firms to give more generously to worthy causes. From this year it has increased tax incentives for corporate donations to charities. But this applies to only a small number of government-approved organisations. For the sake of earthquake relief the authorities are letting down their guard. But the government gives little encouragement to new NGOs and often treats the small existing ones as potential germs of political opposition. The response to this disaster might ease its fears.
政府也在鼓励企业多进行有价值的慈善活动。今 年出台了一些相应的税务政策，鼓励公司企业为慈善事业捐款。然而这些政策所惠及的只是一少部分由官方支持的组织。出于抗震救灾工作的考虑，政府正在放松对 民营慈善机构的警惕，然而也没有对成立新的NGO表示支持。之前政府对待已有的小规模NGO的态度一向不善，认为这种组织是政治反对派的潜在温床。灾难之 后，这份担心可能会有所缓解。

[ 本帖最后由 幕小后 于 2008-5-27 20:51 编辑 ]

幕小后

[2008.05.22]Strait is the gate 海峡之门开启归类于： 中国 — Eco Team @ 2:41 am
Taiwan’s new president
台湾新总统
Strait is the gate
海峡之门开启

May 22nd 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
2008年5月22日 台北
《经济学人》印刷版

Ma sets out his stall. China’s buying, and, for now, so are Taiwan’s people
马英九政策出台。目前，获得大陆和岛内民众的认同。



WHEN Taiwan’s new president, Ma Ying-jeou, made his inaugural speech on May 20th, he was listened to closely not just by the voters who elected him in March but by the Chinese government. It was a foretaste of the job he has taken on. Central to the task will be to balance the pursuit of better China ties with safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty.
5月20 日，台湾新任总统马英九发表就职演说。此时倾听演说的不光是三月大选中支持他的台湾选民，大陆政府也正细听其言。他的工作才刚刚开始，其任内最重大的问题是如何在发展两岸关系与保持台湾主权之间取得平衡。
Mr Ma, 57, a Harvard-educated lawyer, succeeds Chen Shui-bian of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Mr Chen, divested of presidential immunity, now faces a corruption investigation. Mr Ma pleased China by stressing the common heritage shared by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. He courted local opinion, too, by praising the island’s four centuries of history and its new, vibrant democracy. But he distanced himself from Mr Chen’s confrontational policy towards the mainland.
57岁的马英九曾是一位律师，毕业于哈佛大学。其前任，独派民进党的陈水扁，已丧失总统刑事豁免权，目前正面临贪腐案调查。马英九一方面强调两岸的共同传统，由此得到大陆的欣赏；另一方面，他对台湾本岛四百年的历史和这一新兴民主体的活力大加赞叹，并因此赢得岛内民意。同时，他刻意同其前任对抗大陆的政策保持距离。
Mr Ma reaffirmed the “1992 consensus” with China, under which both sides agree to accept there is “one China”, but differ over how to define it. In other words, the dispute over sovereignty is set aside in the interests of better relations. So he is committing himself to the maintenance of the present limbo, of Taiwan’s de facto but not de jure independence. He urged China to “seize the historic opportunity to achieve peace and co-prosperity”. Two days later a senior Chinese official gushed about the “major positive changes” in relations with Taiwan. Mr Ma’s campaign made much of the economic benefits of better relations with China.
马英九重申了与大陆达成的“九二共识”，即“一中各表”。这也意味着双方搁置主权争议，借此改善关系。他的政策是保持台湾目前的尴尬地位，即事实独立却无法理确认。他呼吁大陆“抓住当前难得的历史机遇，从今天开始，共同开启和平共荣的历史新页”。两天之后，大陆一位高级官员高调表示两岸关系发生了“重大积极变化”。马英九选战的胜利很大程度上也归功于同大陆的良好互动。
Cross-strait talks should resume next month. In early July non-stop charter flights between the mainland and Taiwan are to start, and the first mainland tourists should arrive. But Mr Ma says he also wants to see progress on the space China allows Taiwan in the international arena. He may have a long wait. On the eve of his inauguration, Taiwan was again blocked by China from becoming an observer at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.
下月，两岸将重启磋商。七月上旬，两岸直航包机将首航，首批大陆观光客也将抵台。马英九则进一步希望大陆能在国际上给台更大活动空间，但目前似乎仍遥遥无期。就在他就职前不久，大陆再度出手，阻止了台在日内瓦召开的“世界卫生大会”获得观察员资格。
China is delighted to see the back of the DPP, preferring to deal with its former nemesis, Mr Ma’s governing party, the Kuomintang or KMT. But the KMT is split over its approach to the Communists, which may cripple the government’s authority in cross-strait talks. China is a past-master of divide-and-rule strategies.
大陆乐见民进党下野，更愿意同当年的对头，马英九的国民党打交道。但针对国共两党政策，国民党内仍存在分歧，并有可能削弱台政府在两岸磋商中的影响力。一直以来，大陆就善于运用分而治之的策略。
In the latest high-level contact since Mr Ma’s election, the KMT’s chairman, Wu Poh-hsiung, is soon to visit Hu Jintao, China’s president and Communist Party leader. Mr Ma, however, has tried to stamp his personal authority on cross-strait relations with his choice of chairman for the government’s China-policy department, the Mainland Affairs Council. She is Lai Shin-yuan, an independence-minded former legislator. This irked the KMT’s pro-China lobby.
马英九当选后，国共两党的高层往来仍在继续，国民党主席吴伯雄即将拜会中国国家主席、中共中央总书记胡锦涛。但马英九试图在两岸政策中发挥影响力，任命曾经的独派立委赖幸媛为台“陆委会”主委。这一举措使得国民党内的亲大陆派大为不快。In his 20-minute speech, Mr Ma kept using the word “Taiwan” (as opposed to the old name, “the Republic of China”) to show his determination to protect the island. The aim was to map out a cunning path between “one China” and “Taiwan identity”. He will be beset from all sides as he tries to keep to it.
在二十分钟的演说中，马英九一直使用“台湾”，而非从前的“中华民国”，借此显示其保护台湾主体性的决心。他希望最终能在“一个中国”和“台湾主体”间找到折衷。而未来，来自各方的压力将使这条道路坎坷难行。

幕小后

[2008.05.22] Close but no cigar 几近结束,但无法庆祝归类于： 美国 — Eco Team @ 9:31 pm
The Democrats
民主党
Close but no cigar
几近结束,但无法庆祝
May 22nd 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
The contest that refuses to die
拒绝认输的竞争
ON MAY 20th both Democratic candidates had a chance to declare themselves winners. Hillary Clinton, speaking in Louisville, Kentucky, celebrated her two-to-one victory over B***ck Obama in the state. A little later Mr Obama, speaking in Des Moines, Iowa, the state that turned him into a front-runner back in January, celebrated the fact that he was “within reach” of locking up the nomination.
5月20日，两位民主党人都有宣布自己获胜的机会。希拉里克林顿在肯塔基州路易斯维尔宣布，她在这个州的初选当中以2：1的比例战胜奥巴马。晚些时候，奥巴马在爱荷华州得梅因宣布自己“几乎”锁定提名。正是这个州在今年一月使奥巴马成为领头羊。

Mrs Clinton’s gigantic victory in Kentucky has steeled her determination to run the race to the very end. She will contest the three remaining primaries (in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota). She will also present a vigorous case to a special meeting of the Democratic National Committee on May 31st that the votes in Florida and Michigan should be counted. She told supporters in Louisville that she would keep campaigning until the party had a nominee—“whoever she may be”.
克林顿夫人在肯塔基州的大胜更加坚定了她战斗到底的决心。她会参加剩下的三场初选（波多黎各，蒙大拿和南达科他）。并且在民主党全国委员会5月31日的特 殊会议上据理力争,要求将佛罗里达和密歇根的投票计入统计。她告诉路易斯维尔的支持者，自己会继续竞选，除非党内提名最终确定——“不管她是谁”。

But Mrs Clinton is fighting against both the rules of the game and the tide of opinion within her party. After this week’s contests Mr Obama has the majority of the pledged delegates. Mrs Clinton’s only chance of winning is for the superdelegates to move en masse into her camp. She can theoretically make a case for this, based on her strong performance in battleground states and, quite possibly on having actually won more votes than Mr Obama.
但目前克林顿夫人是在同时对抗竞选规则和党内舆论。本周过后，承诺代表当中大多数支持奥巴马。唯一能够使克林顿夫人获胜的机会就是超级代表大量涌入她的阵营。这在理论上是可能的，但她必须在竞争激烈的州有强势表现，并且她可能更要确保自己确实能够赢得多于奥巴马的选票。
But it would cause civil war in the party (Chris Rock, a black comedian, jokes that nobody had ever heard of superdelegates until a black man looked like winning the nomination). Besides, the superdelegates are moving in the opposite direction. Mr Obama has picked up a further 22 of them since his crushing defeat in West Virginia on May 13th compared with Mrs Clinton’s four. The majority of the undeclared superdelegates come from states that Mrs Clinton won, suggesting that they have reservations about backing her.
但这会引起党内内讧（黑人喜剧演员克里斯洛克开玩笑说，要不是一个黑人看起来要赢得提名了，人们都没听说过超级代表这个东西）。另外，超级代表们的行动与 克林顿夫人的愿望相左。5月13日西弗吉尼亚惨败后，奥巴马又得到了他们当中22人的支持，与此同时支持克林顿夫人的只有4人。观望的超级代表中有大部分 来自克林顿夫人获胜的州，说明这些人对是否支持她持保留态度。
In her pursuit of her seemingly impossible goal Mrs Clinton has nevertheless exposed a serious weakness in Mr Obama’s candidacy—his failure to connect with working-class whites, particularly in the Appalachian heartland. The usual rule in primaries is that voters flock to the winning candidate. But Mr Obama has now lost both West Virginia and Kentucky by huge margins. Mrs Clinton carried three-quarters of white voters in Kentucky who earn less than $50,000 a year and lack a college degree. Only 33% of Mrs Clinton’s supporters in Kentucky told exit pollsters that they would vote for Mr Obama if he is the Democratic nominee in November.
然而，在追求这个似乎无法实现的目标时，克林顿夫人揭开了奥巴马作为候选人的一个硬伤——他未能赢得白人工人阶级的支持，尤其在阿巴拉契亚核心腹地。初选通常的 规律是选民们会纷纷涌向获胜的候选人。但现在奥巴马在西弗吉尼亚和肯塔基以巨大的劣势落败。在肯塔基年收入不足五万美元和没有大学学历的白人选民中，有四分 之三的人支持克林顿夫人。这个州只有33%的希拉里的支持者告诉民调人员，如果奥巴马在11月时是民主党候选人的话，自己会支持奥巴马。

Why is Mrs Clinton putting her party through such agonies? She claims she has an obligation to provide a voice for an important Democratic constituency—the “silent voters” that the media and the party establishment would prefer to ignore. Some of her closest supporters worry that she is exacerbating divisions within her party. But from the purely personal point of view her tenacity makes sense. She will be the obvious candidate in 2012 if Mr Obama goes down in defeat in November. She will also have a good chance of inheriting Edward Kennedy’s position in the Senate as the lion of liberalism and the voice of a huge Democratic constituency. The family that gave America the New Democrats will live on as the guardian of the Old Democrats.
为什么克林顿夫人要让民主党经受这样的煎熬？她声称自己有责任为一些重要的民主党选民说话——即媒体和党内机构往往忽视的“沉默的投票人”。一些最亲密的支 持者们担心她会加剧党内的分裂。但是单纯从个人角度出发，她的顽强不无道理。如果奥巴马在十一月落败，她毫无疑问将会成为2012年民主党候选人。她同样 有可能接替爱德华肯尼迪在参议院的位置，成为自由主义的领袖和庞大的民主党选民的发言人。这个家庭为美国塑造了一个全新的民主党，但它必须扮演旧民主党守护者的角色，才能生存。

Mr Obama clearly has some hard work ahead of him as he moves from candidate to nominee. The Democratic Party has never produced a candidate who excites such adulation from his sort of voters. He attracted a crowd of 75,000 people in Portland, Oregon on May 18th. He raised $31m in April—including money from 200,000 new donors. (Mrs Clinton raised $22m, still an astonishing amount; but her campaign is more than $20m in debt).
毫无疑问，从候选人到最终获得提名，奥巴马还有很艰难的路要走。民主党从来没有一位候选人能够获得自己支持者如此热烈的追捧。5月18日在俄勒冈州波特兰，他吸 引了七万五千人。4月份，他筹集了3100万美元——包括20万新捐赠者的资金。（克林顿夫人筹集了2200万美元，这也是个令人吃惊的数字；但她的竞选活 动现在已负债2000多万美元）
But equally it has seldom produced a candidate who encounters such strong resistance from core Democratic voters. Mr Obama is capable of doing well among white working-class voters: witness his victories in Wisconsin and Missouri. A recent poll shows him doing just as well as Mrs Clinton against John McCain among non-Hispanic whites and people without college degrees. But Appalachia could yet prove to be his Achilles heel.
但同样，民主党也从来没有一个候选人要面对核心民主党选民如此强烈的反对。奥巴马有能力处理好与白人工人阶级的关系：看看他在威斯康星和密苏里的胜利。最 近一次调查显示，他同克林顿夫人一样，有能力在非西班牙裔白人和没有大学学位的民众当中同约翰麦凯恩对抗。但阿巴拉契亚始终是他的阿喀流斯之踵。

幕小后

[2008.05.22] We won, so let’s make it worse 赢得了冠军，输了啥？归类于： 欧洲 — Eco Team @ 10:57 am
Football clubs
足球俱乐部
We won, so let’s make it worse
赢得了冠军，输了啥？
May 22nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
A tale of globalisation and its malcontents
全球化与反全球化的故事
ENGLISH hearts, you would think, are swelling with pride. In Moscow on May 21st for the first time two English teams faced each other in the final of the Champions League, a football competition that pits 32 of the best teams across Europe against each other. Manchester United prevailed over Chelsea, as the rest of the continent looked on.
英国人的心里应当是充满自豪的。5月21日，莫斯科，欧洲冠军联赛的决赛中首次出现了两支英国球队会师的场面。（欧洲冠军联赛是一项足球赛事，参赛者是欧洲各国联赛中的32支最强的队伍。）在这场全欧洲瞩目的比赛中，曼彻斯特联队最终战胜了切尔西。

Ronaldo: not English, but great
C·罗纳尔多：不是英国球员，而是伟大的球员
This was no one-off fluke but the latest indicator of the growing dominance of England’s Premier League, once a poor cousin of Spain’s La Liga, Italy’s Serie A and Germany’s Bundesliga. Each of its big four clubs—Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United—has reached at least one Champions League final in the past four years.
英国球队双双杀进决赛并不是一时的巧合，而是近年来英格兰超级联赛逐渐领跑于欧洲的标志。曾几何时，英超只是西甲、意甲与德甲的小弟弟；而最近四年中，英超中的四支劲旅（阿森纳，切尔西，利物浦和曼联）都曾至少一次跻身欧冠的决赛赛场。


This primacy owes little to home-grown talent. Twelve of the 22 players who started the game in Moscow were foreign. Roughly half of those fielded in an average Premier League weekend are neither British nor Irish. The most celebrated star (Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo) is Portuguese. England’s national team failed to qualify for this summer’s European championships.
然而英超的领先优势却并非源自英格兰土生土长的天才球员。莫斯科一役中，双方首发的22名球员里 有12名来自国外。每周周末的英超赛场上，有大约一半的球员既非英国人，也非爱尔兰人。联赛中名声最为显赫的球星，曼联队的克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多，是葡 萄牙人。英格兰自己的国家队甚至没有能够通过今年夏天欧洲杯的预选赛。
Hosting the world’s best without actually besting them is often called “the Wimbledon effect”, after the prestigious tennis tournament that Britain holds each year but is seldom in danger of winning. A better p***llel may be with financial services: the City of London thrives on the back of an open market and international talent.
举办着世界上最高水平的赛事，自身却实力平平，这便是“温布尔登现象”。这个名字来源于著名的网球赛事温布尔登公开赛。每年一度的温网在英国举行，然而英国人却鲜有机会染指冠军。也许用金融服务业的情况来做比更为恰当：正是开放市场与国际人才造就了伦敦金融城的繁荣。
The Premier League’s main source of strength is its financial clout. Since the early 1990s, when stadiums were upgraded and lucrative broadcasting deals agreed upon, the league has become a money-spinner. Foreign investors have poured in (Liverpool and Manchester United are owned by Americans, Chelsea by a Russian). England’s big four clubs are among the world’s ten richest, according to Deloitte, an accounting firm. This allows the clubs to hire the best players, which in turn draws crowds and increases revenues.
英超联赛的主要力量来源于其财政影响。上世界90年代初以来，随着体育场的扩建， 以及一系列利润丰厚的电视转播交易的达成，英超联赛成了一架印钞机。外国投资者蜂涌而至（美国人买下了利物浦与曼联，切尔西则被俄罗斯人收购）。根据会计 公司Deloitte的统计，在世界足坛最富有的十家俱乐部中，英国的四大俱乐部全部榜上有名。有了钱，俱乐部就可以买来最优秀的球员，而优秀球员则为俱 乐部吸引更多的球迷，最终可以转化成财政上的收益。
In most industries such a virtuous circle would be a cause for celebration. But Sepp Blatter, the president of FIFA, football’s governing body, cites English dominance of the Champions League as proof of the need to restrict how many foreigners a team may field. Michel Platini, the head of UEFA, the European wing of FIFA, concurs. Some old-style hoof-it English managers claim that import restrictions would somehow help the coaching of young British talent.
在大多数产业中，这样的良性循环都是值得庆幸的事。然而国际足联（足球管理机构）主席赛普·巴特勒却表示，英超球 队在欧冠联赛中的优势证明，需要对每个球队中能上场的外援球员数量加以严格限制。欧洲足联（国际足联的欧洲分部）主席米加勒·普拉蒂尼也随声附和。有些冥 顽不化的英国俱乐部管理人员也表示，对外援严加限制会有助于英国本土年轻球员的成长。
This is the sort of protectionist tosh that most industries have not dared utter in public since the 1970s. How could a sport get better by limiting competition or lowering standards? English children are bad at football mainly because their training is bad (something other places have fixed). The league football in Britain is unimaginably better than it was. With luck EU labour law will stop Mr Blatter and keep it that way.
自上个世纪70 年代以来，还没有哪项产业敢公然说出这种带有贸易保护主义的胡言妄语。限制竞争，降低赛事水平，体育运动水平就能提高了？英国孩子足球踢的不好的原因是因 为他们没有受到良好的训练，而其他国家已经解决了这个问题。英国的足球联赛水平已经远非昔日可以想像。幸好，欧盟的劳动法案会阻止巴特勒，让英国联赛保持 现状。

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拜读

幕小后

Vietnam
越南
Shooting the messenger
向报信者开炮
May 22nd 2008 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition
The press fights back as two graft-busting reporters are arrested
当两名检举贿赂的记者被捕后，媒体展开反击
THE leaders of Vietnam’s Communist Party say they are conducting a “no holds barred” crackdown on corruption in public life. They implore the country’s newspapers to sniff out and expose the fiddles of officials. In February the party chief, Nong Duc Manh, praised the press for unmasking graft and thereby fulfilling “the people’s desires”. The most notable case was a scandal at the transport ministry in 2006 in which newspapers revealed how officials had gambled around $750,000 of public money on the outcomes of football matches. In the clean-up that followed, the head of a road-building department at the ministry was jailed, along with seven others.
越共领导人声称他们“毫不留情”的打击公共政治中的腐败行为。他们请求报纸寻 找并披露官员的污点。2月份党的总书记农德孟对媒体揭露腐败的行为进行了表彰，称媒体实现了“人民群众的心愿”。最值得注意的是报纸在2006年披露的交 通部丑闻，官员们挪用75万美元公款赌球。在接下来的惩处中，公路建设部门的负责人和其他七名官员入狱。

But recent events have cast doubt on the sincerity of the leadership’s claim to be fighting corruption at all levels. The main charges against Nguyen Viet Tien, a former deputy transport minister, who was the highest-level official to be arrested over the scandal, have been dropped. More worrying still, the two leading investigative reporters who exposed the scandal have been arrested, along with two former policemen who were among their sources, on vague charges of “abuse of power” and publishing false information.
领导层称会打击各个层级的腐败，不论涉案官员的级别有多高。但是最近的事件使人们对 领导层的诚意产生了怀疑。因交通部丑闻被捕的最高级别官员是前交通部副部长Nguyen Viet Tien，对他的主要控告已被撤销。更令人担心的是，两位对丑闻进行调查并予以披露的主要记者和两位为他们提供消息的警察因含糊不清的控告被捕——前者是 报道错误消息，后者是滥用职权。
Vietnam’s news media, despite an appe***nce of diversity, remain tightly controlled: their editors have to be approved by the party and are called in for restrictive “guidance” on what they can report. In recent years they have nonetheless been allowed to publish an increasing amount of criticism of government policy—though it always falls short of questioning the party’s “right” to rule. The arrested reporters work for two newspapers, Thanh Nien and Tuoi Tre, that were especially fearless in exposing official corruption.
越南的新闻媒 体表面上有多样性，但仍受国家严格控制。编辑必须得到党的认可，对于能报道什么要接受严格的“指导”。虽然近些年来允许媒体更多的报道对政府政策的批评， 但通常到不了质疑党的统治合法性的地步。这两名被捕的记者分别供职于Thanh Nien和Tuoi Tre，这两家媒体在披露官员腐败时尤其大胆。
In an unprecedented show of defiance, both newspapers are standing by their reporters. Thanh Nien has run an editorial demanding: “Free the honest journalists.” It says it has been “swamped” with messages of support from the public and some National Assembly members. It challenges the authorities to explain why, if the offending articles had been so inaccurate, none of the police, prosecutors and the ministry of public security had got around to pointing out the errors at any time in the past two years.
两份报纸显示出前所未有的挑战姿态，他们与自己的记者站在一边。 Thanh Nien发表了一篇社论，题目是“释放诚实的记者”，并表示受到公众和一些国会议员“潮水般”的支持。他们向官方发出挑战，要求解释既然令人不快的报道 那么不准确，为什么在过去两年时间里警察，检举人和公安部长都没有抽出哪怕一点时间指出这些错误。
It remains unclear why the authorities have suddenly turned against the graft-busters. Were they getting too close to an even bigger scandal? Are party bosses trying to send a message that those above a certain level in the hierarchy are untouchable? Or could it be a visible symptom of strife between reformers and hardliners in the party hierarchy? “People feel that the journalists are maybe the pawns in some larger game but it’s not clear what that might be yet,” says Catherine McKinley, a media analyst in Hanoi.
至于官方为什么突然逮捕检举者仍不清楚。也许是记 者们触到了更大的丑闻；也许是党的领导们发出了信号——到达一定级别就是不可触及的；这还可能是党内高层改革派和强硬派斗争的冰山一角。河内的媒体分析员 Catherine McKinley说“人们感到记者只是巨大内幕中的一粒棋子，至于内幕是什么就无人知晓了。”
The Communist Party, like its Chinese counterpart, seems to have won the people’s grudging acceptance for having delivered impressively rapid economic development since ditching collectivism over 20 years ago. Now, however, it is battling against roaring inflation and an incipient balance-of-payments crisis. It may need to take unpopular but vital measures; and economic growth may have to be sacrificed temporarily to restore stability. So the party’s bosses will need the public’s forbe***nce. One good way to forfeit it is to victimise those who have spearheaded the fight against corruption.
20多年前越南共产党抛弃了集体主义，带来了快速的经济增 长，并以此勉强获得人民的支持，在这一点上越共与他们的中国同行一样。但是现在越共面临着严重的通货膨胀，收支平衡危机也渐露端倪。采取必要的措施难免会触犯众 怒，为了保持经济稳定可能不得不暂时牺牲增长速度，因此党的领导人们需要民众的忍耐。（在这种背景下越共需要媒体有所收敛）牺牲掉那些与腐败作斗争的急先 锋是个惩罚媒体的好法子

幕小后

Politics this week
本周政治要览
May 22nd 2008
2008年5月22日
From The Economist print edition
摘自《经济学人》印刷版

China observed three days of national mourning for those killed by the recent earthquake in the province of Sichuan. The number of dead or missing climbed above 70,000, and 5m people were reported to be homeless.
为表达对四川地震遇难者的深切哀悼，中国举行了为期三天的全国哀悼日。目前，死亡人数和失踪人数已达7万之多。另据报道，当前有500万人无家可归。详见文章
Three days of national mourning were also declared in Myanmar, where the estimate of casualties from the cyclone on May 2nd was raised to 78,000 dead and 56,000 missing. An agreement reached by South-East Asian foreign ministers should help the inflow of aid. But the risk of a secondary catastrophe, of disease and starvation, remained high.
缅甸也宣布举行为期3天的全国哀悼日。据估计，自5月2日遭受强热带风暴袭击以来，缅甸国内的死亡人数已上升到7.8万人和失踪人数已达5.6万人。东南亚各国外长达成协议以帮助援助物资顺利进入缅甸。不过，缅甸再次面临疾病和饥饿等灾害的风险依然很高。详见文章 　　

The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan held talks in Islamabad, their first official meeting since the formation of a new civilian government in Pakistan. Little progress was made in resolving their disputes, including disagreement over the divided territory of Kashmir.
印度和巴基斯坦外长在伊斯兰堡举行会谈，这是自巴基斯坦组成新文职政府以来的首次正式会谈。在解决两国存在的争议上，包括在克什米尔分割疆土上的分歧中，取得的成效不是很大。详见文章
Motiur Rahman Nizami, leader of Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, was arrested and jailed on corruption charges. The party accused the army-backed interim administration of political h***ssment. It has promised to hold elections in December. But the leaders of the three biggest political parties are now all in detention.
孟加拉国最 大伊斯兰政党伊斯兰大会党（Jamaat-e-Islami Party）的领导人马蒂乌尔•拉赫曼•尼扎米（Motiur Rahman Nizami）因受到腐败指控被捕入狱。 伊斯兰大会党指责军方支持的临时政府应对政治骚乱负责。临时政府已承诺在12月份举行大选。不过，三大政党的领导人正被拘留。
Dominican order
多米尼加的秩序
Leonel Fernández won the presidential election in the Dominican Republic, with 53.8% of the vote. It will be a third term for Mr Fernández, a reforming centre-leftist, who was president from 1996-2000 and was elected again in 2004.
莱昂内尔•费尔南德斯（Leonel Fernández）以53.8%的得票率在多米尼加共和国的总统选举中胜出。这将是赞成改革的中左派费尔南德斯总统的第三次任期，费尔南德斯曾在1996-2000年担任总统。在2004年，费尔南德斯赢得大选再次连任。
The Bush administration said it would soon allow Americans to send mobile phones to family members in Cuba, and that if Raúl Castro, the Cuban president, was “serious about his so-called reforms”, he would let the phones in.
布什政府表示，美国将会允许美国民众向古巴亲属寄送手机。布什还指出，如果古巴总统劳尔•卡斯特罗（Raúl Castro）是“严肃的对待其所谓的改革”，他应该允许这些手机进入古巴。
Suez, a Franco-Belgian utility, won a licence to build and operate two controversial hydro-electric dams on the River Madeira, in Brazil’s Amazon region. The dams were opposed by Marina Silva, who resigned as environment minister earlier this month.
法国比利时合营的苏伊士公司在巴西亚马逊的马德拉河获取了建造和运营二个具有争议的水电站的许可，但环境部长玛丽娜•希尔瓦（Marina Silva）女士对此大加反对。不过，希尔瓦女士已在本月早些时候宣布辞职。
Venezuela’s government protested when an American military aircraft strayed into its airspace—accidentally, said the United States. Venezuela also claimed that Colombian troops had crossed its border, which Colombia denied. These protests came after Interpol declared that computer files that appear to link Venezuela’s government to Colombia’s FARC guerrillas were authentic.
在美国一架军用飞机意外误入委内瑞拉领空后（美国方面如此表示），委内瑞拉政府大加抗议。委内瑞拉还声称哥伦比亚军队越过了两国边界，但哥伦比亚对此表示否认。在国际刑事警察组织宣称委内瑞拉政府同哥伦比亚武装力量有联系的电脑资料可信后，众多抗议活动便接踵而至。详见文章
Voting in the Caucasus
高加索地区的选举
The party of President Mikheil Saakashvili comfortably won Georgia’s general election. Posturing by both the Russians and the Georgians over the breakaway enclave of Abkhazia persisted.
在格鲁吉亚大选中，萨卡什维利(Mikheil Saakashvili)总统领导的政党轻松获胜。由俄国人和格鲁吉亚人装模做样地支持阿布哈兹（Abkhazia）地区独立的活动仍在持续。详见文章
A senior ETA leader, Javier López Peña, was arrested in France, along with three colleagues. Mr Peña is said to have pushed for an end to the Basque terrorist group’s ceasefire last year, and is also thought to have been involved in an ETA car bombing at Madrid airport in 2006.
ETA政治高层领袖Javier López Peña，及三名同事在法国被逮捕。据报道，Peña在2006年促使了巴斯克恐怖组织宣布终止停火，并参与了ETA策划的马德里机场汽车爆炸案。
Silvio Berlusconi took his new cabinet to Naples for its first meeting. Italy’s prime minister wanted to show his determination to tackle the region’s rubbish mountain. He also announced tough new anti-immigration measures, aimed particularly at Roma (gypsies) from Romania.
贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)总理领导新内阁就那不勒斯问题召开首次会议。意大利总理想要显示其着手解决本区垃圾山的决心。贝卢斯科尼总理还宣布了针对罗马尼亚吉普赛族移民的严厉的反移民新举措。详见文章
The European Commission proposed new measures to reform the European Union’s common agricultural policy. The British and Scandinavians said they were too timid; the French and Germans said they were too radical.
欧洲委员会提出改革欧盟共同农业政策的新举措。英国和斯堪的纳维亚民众表示新举措过于怯懦;法国和德国民众则认为新举措过于激进。详见文章
Doha negotiations
多哈磋商
A complex peace deal to end unrest and political p***lysis in Lebanon was struck under the aegis of the emir of Qatar. The balance of power looks likely to shift slightly against the pro-Western alliance in favour of the Shia party-cum-militia, Hizbullah. See article
在卡塔尔穆斯林统治者的支持下，黎巴嫩冲突双方达成了一个旨在结束动乱局面的和平协议。由于对黎巴嫩真主党武装的支持，权力平衡可能会出现轻微的转变，情况不利于亲西方联盟。详见文章
Israel pursued peace on two fronts. It announced talks with Syria through Turkish intermediaries. And it came closer, through the mediation of Egypt, to a ceasefire with the Islamists of Hamas, who control the Gaza Strip.
以色列在二个前线问题上寻求和平。在土耳其的斡旋下，以色列宣布与叙利亚举行和平会谈。在埃及的调解下，以色列同伊斯兰哈马斯抵抗运动在宣布停火协议上更近一步。目前，伊斯兰哈马斯抵抗运动正控制加沙地带。详见文章
Islamists and tribal alliances continued to dominate Kuwait’s 50-seat parliament after a general election that reformers had hoped would end months of delays in passing legislation. Not a single female candidate was elected. In any event, the al-Sabah family will still run the show.
大选过后，伊斯兰主义者和部落联盟继续在科威特议会的50个席位中仍占有主导地位，改革派希望通过大选结束法案延迟数月尚未通过的局面。此次大选中，没有一名女性候选人被选任。不管如何，萨巴赫家族（al-Sabah）仍将操纵局势。详见文章


At least 42 black immigrants in South Africa, mainly from Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Malawi, were killed and some 20,000 may have been displaced as a result of xenophobic attacks by indigenous gangs, who accused them of stealing their jobs and of criminality.
在南非地方帮派的仇外袭击活动中，至少42名黑人移民（主要来自津巴布韦、莫桑比克和马拉维）被杀害，约2万人被迫流离失所。地方帮派指责外来移民夺取了他们的工作岗位和犯下许多罪行。详见文章
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission said that a presidential run-off between the incumbent, President Robert Mugabe, and his challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, would be held on June 27th. The intimidation of opposition campaigners proceeded apace.
津巴布韦选举委员会表示，现任总统穆加贝（Robert Mugabe）和竞争对手茨万吉拉伊（Morgan Tsvangirai）之间的总统大选将在6月27日重新举行。针对反对派活动人士的恐吓举动正在迅速蔓延。
Finishing where he started
终于起点
As expected, B***ck Obama handily won the Democratic primary in Oregon and Hillary Clinton thumped him by a huge margin in Kentucky’s contest, where a third of her supporters said they would not vote for Mr Obama in November. He went to Iowa and held a victory rally (though it wasn’t called that) to mark the fact that he had amassed a majority of pledged delegates overall—excluding the thorny votes in Florida and Michigan.
不出所料，巴拉克•奥巴马（B***ck Obama）在俄勒冈顺利地赢取了民主党初选，希拉里•克林顿在肯塔基的选举中以巨大的优势重创奥巴马，在肯塔基的选举中，有1/3的希拉里的支持者表 示，在11月份不会投票支持奥巴马。奥巴马已前往衣阿华州并举行胜利集会(虽未明言)以纪念他获取多数宣誓代表票(Pledged Delegates)——但要排除在佛罗里达州和密歇根州令人苦恼的表决。详见文章

Mr Obama and John McCain continued to spar over foreign policy. After taking umbrage at remarks George Bush made in Israel about appeasement, Mr Obama went on to argue that the threat from Iran was not of the same magnitude as that posed by the Soviet Union. Mr McCain said that was a “reckless judgment”.
奥巴马和约翰•麦凯恩在对外政策上仍在持续争吵。 乔治・布什在以色列发表演讲，认为同伊朗对话是”绥靖行为“，奥巴马对此表示抗议。奥巴马继续指出，伊朗的威胁同当年苏联的威胁不可同日而语。不过，麦凯恩却表示，那是一“鲁莽的结论”。详见文章
Another senior aide left Mr McCain’s team because of lobbying. To tackle criticisms that it is too close to lobbyists, his campaign is asking staff to either sever their ties or leave.
另一高级助手因游说问题离开麦凯恩的竞选团队。针对过于接近游说者的批评，麦凯恩的竞选团队正要求竞选助手， 要么切断同游说团体的联系，要么离开。

Pundits pondered whether the legalisation of gay marriage in California would have an impact on the general election. In a ruling on May 15th, the state’s Supreme Court struck down a ban on same-sex nuptials as discriminatory.
权威人士正在仔细思考加利福尼亚同性恋婚姻是否应当合法化，这将对美国大选产生重大影响。在5月15日的一次判决中，加州最高法院以存在歧视为由取消了对同性恋婚姻的限制。详见文章
Senator Edward Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumour after suffering a s eizure. Politicians from across the political spectrum wished him a speedy recovery.
在遭受癫痫病痛之后，参议院议员爱德华・肯尼迪（Edward Kennedy）又被诊断患有恶性脑瘤。政界人世祝愿其早日恢复

树静风止

小后辛苦了。

幕小后

[2008.05.22] Inflation’s back 通胀归来归类于： 社论 — Eco Team @ 11:57 pm
The world economy
世界经济
Inflation’s back
通胀归来
May 22nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
Double-digit price rises are about to afflict two-thirds of the world’s population
两位数的通胀将会困扰全球三分之二的人

RONALD REAGAN once described inflation as being “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit-man”. Until recently, central bankers thought that this thug had been locked up for life. Thanks to sound monetary policies, inflation worldwide had stayed low in recent years. But the mugger is back on the prowl.
罗纳德里根曾经这样形容通货膨胀—“它如强盗般凶猛，武匪般骇人，杀手般致命”。直到最近，中央银行都以为这个恶棍已经被终身囚禁起来。由于合理的货币政策，这些年全球范围内的通货膨胀维持在一个较低的水平。但这个暴徒现在已经悄然潜回。


Even though America is close to recession and growth in other developed economies has slowed, inflation is rising. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, this week gave warning about the mistakes of the 1970s, when inflation was let loose at huge cost to growth. His words were aimed at rich-country central banks, but policymakers in emerging economies are the ones who should most take heed. In countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Saudi ***bia even the often dodgy official statistics show prices have risen by 8-10% over the past year; in Russia the rate is over 14%; in Argentina the true figure is 23% and in Venezuela it is 29%. If you measure the numbers correctly, two-thirds of the world’s population will probably suffer double-digit rates of inflation this summer (see article).
即使美 国即将面临衰退，其他发达国家经济增长也已放缓，通货膨胀却日益严重。欧洲中央银行主席让-克洛德·特里谢本周警告世界不要重蹈70年代的覆辙，当时通胀 肆虐给经济带来严重损失。他的话针对发达国家的中央银行，但新兴经济政策制定者们也应该留心。在中国，印度，印度尼西亚，沙特等国，即使是经过处理官方数 字也显示在过去的一年里，价格上升了8%至10%，俄罗斯超过14%，阿根廷的真实数据是23%，而委内瑞拉是29%。如果正确统计数字，今夏全球三分之 二的人将深受两位数通货膨胀之苦。
A 1970s reunion you really don’t want to attend
昨日不要重现
Taken as a whole (and using official figures), the average world inflation rate has risen to 5.5%, its highest since 1999. The main cause has been the surge in the prices of food and oil, which briefly soared above $135 a barrel this week. But Mr Trichet’s concern is that higher headline rates could push up inflation expectations, leading to bigger pay demands, and so trigger a wage-price spiral, as in the 1970s. Central bankers’ mistake then was to hold monetary policy too loose, so that higher oil prices quickly fed into other prices. So it is worrying that global monetary policy is now at its loosest since the 1970s: the average world real interest rate is negative.
整体而言（使用官方数据），全球平均通货膨胀率今 年上升到自1999年以来新高的5.5%。这主要是因为食品和石油价格的上涨，后者本周突破135美元一桶。特里谢先生担心，现在的情况可能如同70年代 一样，更高的整体通货膨胀率会提升通货膨胀预期，引发大幅加薪的需求，从而引发工资价格的螺旋上升。70年代各中央银行错在货币政策太宽松，从而使高油价 迅速体现在其他价格当中。现在的货币政策是70年代以来最宽松的—世界平均实际利率为负—这一事实令人格外担忧。
By slashing interest rates as inflation has climbed, has the Fed sowed the seeds of a new inflationary era? That case looks hard to prove in the rich world. Inflation rates of 3.9% in America and 3.3% in the euro area are far higher than central banks want, and inflation expectations are rising. If growth in the euro area remains robust, the ECB should certainly worry more about inflation. Yet so far there is little sign that higher food and oil prices are pushing up other prices in the rich economies. Wages have remained relatively subdued and core rates of inflation (excluding food and energy) are little higher than a year ago. Moreover, growth is expected to be below trend in America and Europe over the next year or so and unemployment is likely to climb, which will help to curb wage rises. America’s consumer-confidence index has fallen to a 28-year low, which suggests that consumer spending will fall. This, in turn, will spur firms to cut costs and limit pay rises.
在 通货膨胀率上升时大幅削减利率，联储是否埋下通胀的祸根？在发达国家恐怕很难这样说。美国通货膨胀率是3.9%，欧元区为3.3%，都远高于中央银行的目 标，并且通货膨胀还在上升。如果欧元区发展持续强劲,欧洲中央银行就肯定会更加担心通货膨胀了。然而到目前为止没有迹象表明在发达国家食品石油价格的上涨 也拉高了其他价格，工资相对比较稳定，核心通货膨胀率（除去食品和能源）并不比去年高多少。据估计大约一年以后，美国和欧洲的增长将会减慢，失业率将上 升，这有助于抑制工资上升。美国消费者信心指数已经跌至28年来最低，意味着消费支出降低，这又会刺激企业进一步削减成本，控制工资上升。
The picture is very different in emerging countries. Prices are rising much faster partly because food accounts for a bigger chunk of their consumer-price indices. But wages (rising at nearly 30% a year in Russia) and core-inflation rates are also accelerating. Many of these economies are operating close to full capacity, where inflation is more likely to take hold.
在新兴经济情况迥然不同。因为食品在消费者价格指数中所占比重较大，价格上涨要快得多。但工资（在俄罗斯一年上涨了将近30%）和核心通货膨胀率同样在上升。许多经济体已经几乎开动了自身的全部生产能力，通货膨胀极有可能在这些地方肆虐。
There are alarming similarities between emerging economies today and the rich world in the 1970s when the Great Inflation lifted off. Many policymakers in emerging markets view the rise in inflation as a short-term supply shock and so see little need to raise interest rates. Instead they are using price controls and subsidies to cap prices. Money supplies are growing almost three times as fast as in the developed world. Many central banks are still not fully independent. And inflationary expectations are not properly anchored, increasing the risk of a wage-price spiral. Emerging markets may as well be inviting the muggers into their own homes.
今天，新兴经济与70年代发展严重通货膨胀的发达国家之间有着惊人的相似 性。新兴经济的许多政策制定者将通货膨胀率上升视为短期供给的冲击，因而认为没有必要提高利率，而是使用价格控制和补贴的办法来控制价格。货币供给速度是 发达国家的三倍。许多中央银行还没有完全独立。通货膨胀预期并没有有效平复，从而增加了工资价格螺旋上涨的风险。同以前的发达国家一样，新兴经济现在也在 引狼入室。
Watch your back
小心
Rising inflation, like so much of the world economy in recent years, can be explained partly by the increasingly complex links between developed and emerging economies. Emerging economies shared some responsibility for America’s housing and credit bubble. As Asian economies and Middle East oil exporters ran large current-account surpluses, they piled up foreign reserves (mostly in American Treasury securities) in order to prevent their currencies from rising. This pushed down bond yields. At the same time, cheap imports from China and elsewhere helped central banks in rich economies hold down inflation while keeping short-term interest rates lower than in the past. Cheap money fuelled America’s bubble.
通货膨胀加剧，同近些年的大部分经济现象一样，在一定程度上由于发达和新兴经济之间联系日益复杂导致的。新兴经济在一定程度上引起 了美国房地产和信用泡沫。由于亚洲经济体和中东石油出口国有巨大的经常项目盈余，为防止货币升值他们积累了大量的外汇储备（大部分是美国国债），从而拉低 了债券收益。与此同时，从中国或其他地方进口的廉价商品有助于中央银行在保持短期利率低于以往的前提下有效控制通货膨胀。低息贷款又使美国的经济泡沫雪上 加霜。
Now that this bubble has burst, the cross-border monetary stimulus has changed direction. As the Fed has cut interest rates, emerging economies that link their currencies to the dollar have been forced to run a looser monetary policy, even though their economies are overheating. Emerging economies with currencies most closely aligned to the dollar, notably in Asia and the Gulf, have seen the biggest price rises. Countries, such as Mexico, that have more flexible exchange rates and are more committed to inflation targets have done better.
现 在泡沫已经破灭，国际货币的刺激因素也转换了作用方向。随着联储调低利率，虽然国内经济已经过热，将本国货币与美元挂钩的新兴经济仍然被迫实行了更加宽松 的货币政策。货币严格盯住美元的新兴经济，尤其是亚洲和海湾地区，价格上升幅度最大。而汇率有较大弹性并且更加致力于控制通货膨胀的国家，比如说墨西哥， 经济表现要好一点。
Even if the Fed’s interest rate suits the American economy, global interest rates are too low. In turn, the unwarranted stimulus to demand in emerging economies is further pushing up commodity prices; so too is speculative buying by investors seeking higher returns than from bond yields, which are still being depressed by the emerging economies’ build-up of reserves. This stokes inflationary pressures in America and Europe and makes life difficult for rich-country central banks.
即使联储的利率对于美国经济而言很合适，国际利率仍然很低。相应的，它刺激了新 兴经济的需求，抬高了商品价格。寻找比债券更高收益的热钱也起了同样的作用，新兴经济体的巨额外汇储备压低了美国国库券的收益率。这增大了欧美国家的通货 膨胀压力，让发达国家的中央银行日子很不好过。
Loose money in America and rigid exchange rates in emerging economies are a perilous mix. The longer emerging economies hold down their exchange rates, the greater the risk of rising global inflation. Admittedly, exchange-rate appreciation is not as simple a remedy for emerging economies as some claim: a rise in interest rates and the expectation of a further appreciation in the exchange rate could, perversely, exacerbate inflation by sucking in more capital; and setting the exchange rate free risks massive overvaluation. But with an economic serial killer on the loose, one way or another monetary policy will have to tighten and exchange rates rise.
美 国大量的货币和新兴经济刚性的汇率是一个危险组合。新兴经济固定自己的汇率越久，全球通货膨胀的风险越大。不得不承认，上调汇率对于新兴经济而言并不像有 些人声称的那样是一剂简单的良药。加息和进一步上调利率很可能产生反作用，吸纳进更多的资本而加剧通货膨胀，而汇率自由浮动则可能严重高估货币价值。但面 对通货膨胀这个经济连环杀手，必须设法收紧货币，上调汇率。

幕小后

Computer animation
电脑动画
Tall tales
离奇故事
May 22nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
The rollercoaster, rags-to-riches story of a remarkable animation studio
非同凡响的动画工作室是如何白手起家，平步青云的。

Breaking the mould
打破陈规
PIXAR’S ch***cters—whether the heroic toys of “Toy Story”, the father and son fish of “Finding Nemo”, the insects in “A Bug’s Life” or the rat-chef of “Ratatouille”—are full of yearning; for a child to play with, a lost family member, or to become something that seems far out of reach. The small company that imagined them is just the same. Right from the beginning, Pixar, officially a computer-hardware business, secretly dreamed of a more creative life making feature films.
从《玩具总动员》中神勇的玩具 兵，到《海底总动员》里的父子鱼；从《虫虫总动员》中的小昆虫，到《美食总动员》里的老鼠大厨，皮克斯创造出的角色总是对未来满怀期待：期待着能够一起玩 耍的小伙伴，期待着失去的亲人重新团聚，期待着拥有看似无法企及的身份。这其实也是这家小公司对自身的期许。成立伊始的皮克斯公司的正式业务是电脑硬件， 然而却暗暗怀着制做长篇电影的梦想。


Ed Catmull’s ambition at school had been to become an animator at Disney, but he gave up because he couldn’t draw. Computer animation, he realised, having graduated in computer science and physics, could be a way to overcome this. So Mr Catmull brought together a small group of people to form a computer-graphics group, which later became Pixar. Their early attempts were uninspiring, however. Two years in the making, the 1977 film, “Tubby the Tuba”, looked bad and the story did not work. Mr Catmull and his colleagues quickly realised that fancy technology was not enough, and that story-telling was just as vital to computer animation as to the hand-drawn sort. Under John Lasseter, a young animator rejected by Disney, Pixar started to develop a new kind of cartoon, which eschewed fairy-tale plots and entertained adults as well as children.
早在中学时代，埃 德·凯特默Ed Catmull就梦想着进迪士尼做动画片。然而由于不会画画，最后他还是放弃了这个念头。他选择了计算机科学与物理学作为专业，毕业之后，他意识到计算机 动画可以补偿他的遗憾。凯特默建立了一个小组，研究电子动画技术。这个小组便是后来的皮克斯公司。然而起初他们的努力并没有取得什么成为。经过了两年的制 作，1977年，他们完成了一部名为“Tubby the Tuba” 的电影。画面很糟糕，故事情节也乏善可陈。凯特默和他的同事们很快意识到花拳绣腿的技术是无事无补的，和手绘动画一样，故事情节在电脑动画中也起着举足轻 重的作用。一名年轻的动画制作者约翰·莱斯特被迪士尼拒之门外之后转投皮克斯公司。在他的故事下，皮克斯开始研发一套全新的动画技术。他们摈弃了童话情 节，不仅仅面向儿童，也要给成年人带来同样的乐趣。
Pixar soon drew the attention of George Lucas, director of the “Star Wars” films, and its future seemed assured. But all Mr Lucas really wanted was for the little company to make whizzy special effects for Lucasfilm’s movies, not expensive computer-animated films of its own. At one point, in 1985, Pixar, losing money fast, was nearly sold to General Motors and Philips Electronics, which wanted its computer-graphics modelling tools to help design cars and transform medical scans into three-dimensional images. Even when Steve Jobs, a co-founder of Apple, came to the rescue, Pixar was still in danger. Its pretence to be a computer company was going badly: sales of the Pixar Image Computer were slow. The only significant way the company was earning money was by making cartoon advertisements to sell other companies’ products.
不久，皮克斯引起了《星球大战》系列电影 的导演乔治·卢卡斯的注意，前途也逐渐变得光明起来。然而卢卡斯对这家小公司的期待只是为卢卡斯影业的电影中增添些眼花缭乱的特效，而不是自出机杼且价格 不菲的电脑动画。1985年，皮克斯公司的财政陷入了困境，几乎被通用汽车和菲利浦电子收购。前者想在汽车设置中皮克斯的计算机动画建模技术，后者则想将 医疗检查的结果用三维图像显示出来。即使苹果公司创始人之一斯蒂芬·乔布斯出手相助，收购了公司，皮克斯依然未能摆脱困境。作为一家计算机公司，他们的业 绩可谓惨不忍睹。皮克斯牌图像电脑的销量一直停滞不前。为其他公司的产品设计卡通广告成了皮克斯公司财务收入的唯一主要来源。
But there was reason for hope. “Tin Toy”, a short animated film, won an Oscar in 1988, and that was enough to keep Pixar alive and, crucially, to attract the interest of Disney. Together, the two studios made “Toy Story”, which became a critical and financial success.
然而皮克斯仍然抱有着希望。1988年，他们制作的动画短片Tin Toy赢得了奥斯卡奖。皮克斯得以借此维持生计，更重要的是，这让他们吸引了迪士尼的注意。两家工作室协作打造了《玩具总动员》。这部作品广受好评，票房上也大获丰收。
Several more hits followed, and Pixar astounded Hollywood with its consistency. The studio became widely revered for its creative culture and for its insistence on originality. There are few American companies with as saintly a reputation. In 2006 Disney bought Pixar for $7.4 billion, and promptly put Messrs Catmull and Lasseter in charge of Disney’s own animation unit.
在这之后，皮克斯又接连制做了几部成功作品。他们坚持不懈的精神终于打动了好莱坞。皮克斯作品独树一帜的风格和坚 持不懈的创新精神受到了广泛推崇。很少有美国公司能享有如此的声誉。2006年，迪士尼公司以74亿美元的价格收购了皮克斯，并迅速将莫斯·凯特默和莱斯 特二人提到了迪士尼动画部门的主管位置。
A number of interesting things about Disney emerge in this excellent, readable account of Pixar’s early years. David Price claims, for instance, that Disney’s chief executive, Michael Eisner, considered shutting down the company’s animation unit after he took over as chief executive in 1984, an astonishing fact given the subsequent success of cartoon films such as “The Lion King”. Mr Price also makes clear just how much Pixar owes to Disney: it was the larger company’s marketing for “Toy Story”, for instance, that gave Mr Jobs the confidence to launch an initial public offering of shares in Pixar in 2005.
在迪士尼与皮克斯成绩卓著、令人侧目的合作关系初期，发生了一些颇令人回味的事情。例如，大卫·普莱斯对外透 露，迪士尼公司的总裁麦克尔·埃斯纳自1984年上任以来，一直考虑停止公司动画部门的运作。考虑到迪士尼一系列成功�